Is it time for Musharraf to go?

Is it time for Musharraf to go?
Olivia Ward, FOREIGN AFFAIRS WRITER
May 15, 2007: The Toronto Star

In the sticky heat of a New York September, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was cool and relaxed as he fielded polite questions from international journalists at the launch of his best-selling autobiography.

The question of his resignation from the office that he seized in a 1999 bloodless military coup was not on the table. And he explained that as a reformer, he would do what was best for the country.

Eight months later, Musharraf is feeling the heat from all directions, and the country is rising against him.

Pakistan's major cities are paralyzed by political strikes and rocked by violence that has killed dozens – the latest, a Supreme Court registrar. Now, an increasing number of Pakistanis and foreign observers are thinking what was recently unthinkable: Is it time for Musharraf to go?

"In the last few days a feeling of tragedy is growing among Pakistanis," says Hassan Abbas, a research fellow of Harvard University's Belfer Center, and former Pakistani security official. "People who believed in the rule of law saw all their desires and dreams crushed by the violence of the last two days."

He added, "there is not just dislike of Musharraf, but hatred."

His fall would remove the regional linchpin for the West's fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Musharraf has been a key ally of George W. Bush since the U.S. president moved to oust neighbouring Afghanistan's Taliban government in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

For years, Musharraf has been the Houdini of political brinksmanship, dodging bombs and opposition salvos with uncanny aplomb. But now even his key supporters, the Pakistani military, are wavering.

A confrontation with Pakistan's top judge, Iftikhar Chaudhry – whom Musharraf accused of misusing his office and suspended – has sparked an explosion of protest from supporters as well as opponents.

Musharraf's political foes called the judge's suspension an attempt to undermine the independence of the judiciary, and to rid the leader of obstacles to remaining in office as head of both the country and the army as a September presidential election approaches.

"(It) boils down to one simple fact," leading Pakistani journalist and author Ahmed Rashid wrote in The Washington Post. "He was not considered sufficiently reliable to deliver pleasing legal judgments in a year when Musharraf is seeking to extend his presidency for five more years, remain as army chief and hold what would undoubtedly be rigged general elections."

Musharraf accused Chaudhry of using his influence to obtain a police job for his son. But many in Pakistan disregarded the charge and united behind the judge, who became the most celebrated figure in the country.

Peaceful protests drew huge crowds in major cities, and a week ago a rally featuring Chaudhry in the Punjabi capital of Lahore alarmed Musharraf's supporters, who worried that the country's economic powerhouse, Karachi, could be next.

To block the Karachi rally the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), allies of Musharraf, held a rival event and confronted demonstrators on their way to greet Chaudhry, bringing anarchy and violence to the streets. The local security services were absent until more than 30 people were dead.

"That's what tipped the balance," says Toronto-based analyst Kamran Bokhari, an expert in the region who met with Musharraf last winter. "Goons were allowed to open fire, point blank, at opposition workers. It's taken a major psychological toll on the country."

Yesterday, Syed Hammad Raza, an official of Pakistan's Supreme Court and ally of Chaudhry, was also shot and killed at close range in his home, but no suspects have been arrested.

"The MQM were known for their underworld style behaviour," said Bokhari, a senior analyst for U.S.-based Strategic Forecasting Inc. "All over the country people were able to watch the violence on television and it horrified them. They have had enough."

The bloodshed, which Musharraf condemned but failed to halt, has ended the president's chances of re-election, Bokhari said. Above all his political survival is in doubt because his biggest backer, the military, is "ready to give him the boot."

"Pakistan's military is like a corporation. If the board of directors sees that the CEO is putting his interests above everybody else's, they get ready to negotiate a retirement package," he said.

In the wake of the violence, many of Musharraf's political allies are also backing off. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League Party is withdrawing support, and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto's popular Pakistan People's Party is expected to follow. The country's rival intelligence services are turning their backs on Musharraf.

The violence has also embarrassed Washington, which supplies Pakistan with money and financial support to join in the "war on terror."

"Anger in the U.S. Congress and media, particularly among members of the Republican party, toward Musharraf's dual-track policy in Afghanistan – helping to catch Al Qaeda but backing the Taliban – is making it difficult for President Bush to continue offering his blanket support," says Rashid.

To Abbas, a former official in Musharraf's government, the president is leading on borrowed time.

"He is living in a fool's paradise, surrounded by people who tell him what he wants to hear. He could try to muzzle the progressive democratic forces through a military clampdown. But my biggest worry is that the next wave of people on the street will be under the green banner of the Islamists."