Comment: Good Analysis, but Flawed Conclusions. Author's expectations and suggestions in the last paragraph are unrealistic. Musharraf can neither "move swiftly to assert authority", nor "work quickly to make his Government more accountable".
From The Times May 16, 2007
Failing Pakistan
The mobs on the street are a threat beyond the country’s borders
The bomb that killed at least 24 people in a hotel in Peshawar is the latest sign of instability in Pakistan. The atrocity has been blamed on local militants in the lawless North West Frontier Province in retaliation for government strikes; others have pointed to Afghan Intelligence, after border clashes between the armies of Afghanistan and Pakistan, whose rapidly worsening relations are being exploited by Taleban militants to establish safe havens in Pakistan. At the other end of the country, tensions remain high in Karachi, where two days of violence have left 41 people dead and brought pitched battles to the commercial capital. Meanwhile, armed militants in Baluchistan are inciting a tribal rebellion, while North and South Waziristan remain no-go areas for government forces as al-Qaeda fighters, criminal gangs and antigovernment rebels plot further strikes with seeming impunity. Pakistan, fractious, violent and unstable, is stumbling towards the nightmare scenario of a failed state.
The violence is the biggest threat to President Musharraf since he seized power in a coup in 1999. And as a coalition of enemies plots an end to his authoritarian rule, his room for manoeuvre becomes ever narrower. He is, in part, to blame for this latest escalation: his ill-judged decision on March 9 to suspend Muhammad Iftikar Chaudhry, the Chief Justice, on trumped-up charges that he had misused his office for personal gain has united the opposition, galvanised the professional classes and transformed chafing at military rule into ugly street violence. Tensions are running high in Lahore, where Justice Chaudhry called for the “destruction” of dictatorships that ignore the rule of law. The explosion came in Karachi, where the MQM movement of families expelled from India in 1947, until now supporters of General Musharraf, stirred up violence.
The President faces a dilemma. He cannot quash the rebellions without the army. But it is his determination to remain head of the army that has alienated Pakistan’s politicians and was the real reason why he dismissed Justice Chaudhry, who was likely to rule against the President’s plans to continue in both offices. He has several options, all risky. He could ride out the crisis, hoping that the protests collapse – which is possible, but not probable. He could argue that he was wrongly advised, reinstate Justice Chaudhry and look for a scapegoat. It is probably too late for this. He could declare a state of emergency and impose martial law. But this risks provoking bigger demonstrations and more bloodshed, and would alienate crucial supporters such as the United States. Or he could do a deal with Pakistan’s ousted politicians in return for support for his presidency. There are signs that he is attempting to woo home Benazir Bhutto, leader of the still popular Pakistan People’s Party, with a promise to drop corruption charges against her. But so far the PPP has refused to agree that he should stay on as army chief.
The collapse of state authority or the bloody overthrow of President Musharraf would be disastrous – for the region, for peace with India and for the global struggle against al-Qaeda. Pakistan-based terrorism is already the greatest threat to security in Britain and the West. General Musharraf must move swiftly to assert authority, and then work quickly to make his Government more accountable. The mobs on the street are a threat to all the world.
Also See:
General Unrest
May 15, 2007: The Guardian
Not a day goes by without more trouble for Pakistan's president-general Pervez Musharraf. Yesterday a gunfight broke out as US, Afghan and Pakistani soldiers were trying to work out why Afghan and Pakistani soldiers opened fire on each other the day before. A gunman disguised as a Pakistani paramilitary (according to Pakistan military sources) opened fire, killing at least one US soldier. Shortly before, a senior official of the supreme court was shot dead at his home in the normally safe capital, Islamabad. He was the main witness for the legal team representing the suspended supreme court judge Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Meanwhile, Pakistan's biggest cities were brought to a halt by an anti-government strike in response to the weekend's street battles in Karachi in which 41 people died. Each drama poses the same question for Pakistan's military ruler, who still maintains he is guiding his nation back towards civilian rule. How long will he be able to carry on?
Some of the general's problems are not, directly, of his making. He is surrounded by conflict on each of his borders. He is facing a low-intensity insurgency in Baluchistan. Pakistan's lawless tribal belt is coming under the growing influence of the Taliban. The border with Afghanistan is impossible to police. But other crises, such as the attempt to cashier the country's top judge, are the general's responsibility. Since Mr Chaudry was suspended last month, the chief justice has become not only the symbol of the president's attempts to undermine the judiciary, but the focus of all discontent against continued military rule.
That protest is being voiced by the very elites - middle-class lawyers and bureaucrats - who supported the general's attempts to clean up the country's corrupt political class when he took over seven years ago. Today, the military ruler is looking to many of the middle classes who supported his coup, as if he has passed his sell-by date. Few of them believe the judge was suspended over allegations that he tried to install his son in a top police post. Mr Chaudry, who scuppered the corrupt privatisation of a state-run steel mill, was also in a key position to obstruct the president's plans to remain army chief while continuing to occupy the presidency. For Mr Musharraf's political plan to succeed, the troublesome judge had to go.
The weekend gun battles in Karachi were also predictable and preventable. A security presence 15,000 strong did nothing to stop gunmen trading shots between neighbourhoods dominated by rival ethnic groups and parties. While the intended arrival in the city of the suspended chief justice was the spark, months of tension between the ruling Muttahida Qaumi Movement( MQM) and opposition parties preceded what has become known as the Karachi blood bath.
Gen Musharraf still claims parliamentary elections will go ahead as planned in November. Rumours have been circulating for months that a deal is being stitched up with a former enemy, the exiled Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party (PPP). In return for dropping corruption charges ,Ms Bhutto would be allowed to return from exile possibly as prime minister if her party does well in the elections. This would allow Gen Musharraf to continue as president. But after the weekend's events in which PPP activists were killed, this marriage of convenience is starting to look as hopelessly unrealistic as all the other options.
It is not elections that beckon, but a state of emergency. Some observers claim it is being engineered. It would buy the president much needed time to get back in control, but it could also provoke more violence. There are many imponderables. No one really knows what the army thinks, or whether support is building for another general who thinks he can do better. All that one can say is that America's chief regional ally in the war on terror is in the biggest crisis of his political, and military, life.
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