Musharraf in a Volatile Situation

Bokhari: Pakistani leader's caught in a volatile situation
Kamran Bokhari, SPECIAL CONTRIBUTOR
Austin American-Statesman, March 09, 2007

There has been a surge in statements in recent weeks from the United States and its NATO allies accusing Pakistan of allowing its territory to be used by the Taliban, which has intensified its insurgency in neighboring Afghanistan. More or less coinciding with a rise in such criticism is a suicide bombing campaign in Pakistan by pro-Taliban militants with ties to al Qaeda. There have been half a dozen suicide attacks since January — with two in the capital, Islamabad — targeting the Marriott Hotel and the international airport.

Caught between the external pressure and the attacks from within is President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, with whom I had the opportunity to sit down on Jan. 4 in a very candid 35-minute one-on-one discussion on how he intends to deal with the challenges facing his regime and his country.

In his eighth year of rule, Musharraf remains very much secure in his position; no domestic political force has been able to oust him from power. However, Musharraf does face a grave situation regarding militant Islamists who not only utilize Pakistani soil to stage attacks in other countries but also have begun to strike within Pakistan.

The terrorism problem in Pakistan coupled with international counter-terrorism efforts could create a dynamic that could be exploited by Musharraf's political opponents, especially since he faces a controversial re-election bid this year, which will be followed by parliamentary polls.

When I asked Musharraf about his political goals, he said he needed five more years to roll back religious extremism, ensure political stability and sustain economic growth.

Musharraf described the upcoming legislative polls as a pivotal contest between extremist and moderate forces. He said he wants to see those who support moderation prevailing at the federal and provincial levels. The Pakistani leader stressed that a key concern is preventing the Talibanization of his country, especially the Pashtun areas along the Afghan border.

Though he acknowledged that the Afghan Taliban was receiving support from within Pakistan, Musharraf strongly denied allegations that the country's intelligence agency and other state institutions were aiding the Pashtun jihadist movement. He argued that it would be ridiculous for his government to support such forces when his goal is to transform Pakistan into a regional energy and trade corridor, which requires a stable Afghanistan.

Musharraf admitted that there were no quick solutions to the problem of Islamist extremism but offered some insights on the efforts of his government toward tackling the menace of religious radicalism. He emphasized the need to deal with the issue politically, which would complement ongoing military operations.

It is true that the increasing pressure from the United States and its European allies to crack down harder on the jihadists is creating problems for Musharraf's government.

Moreover, the U.S. airstrikes on Pakistani territory — such as the one that targeted a madrassah in the tribal belt and killed more than 80 people — are exacerbating matters. That operation triggered a campaign of suicide attacks against not just Pakistani security forces but against Western targets in the country's capital.

The unprecedented wave of suicide attacks in Pakistan and conversations with Musharraf as well as other senior military and political leaders suggest that Islamabad finally decided that it can no longer afford to avoid confronting Islamist radicalism. It appears that the Pakistani military is in the initial stages of revising its historical relations with the mullahs.

Whether this process can reach fruition remains to be seen.

Bokhari is a senior analyst on the Middle East and South Asia with Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor), a private U.S. intelligence firm based in Austin.