With Bush in the line of fire
A view from America
By Shaheen Sehbai:the News, October 3, 2006
The writer is a senior Washington-based Pakistani journalist
As chances of President George Bush losing the Congress to the Democrats in the November 7 elections become brighter by the day, serious questions are being raised about what will happen to his war on terror, the Iraq war and, more importantly to President General Musharraf's future and fortunes, so closely linked to Bush and company.
The stakes for Bush are enormous and analysts are already predicting the worst case scenario. According to Martin Walker, editor emeritus of the UPI: "If the Democrats take control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate, the Bush administration's ability to prosecute and to finance the war in Iraq will come swiftly into question. And even more quickly will come the blizzard of subpoenas, requiring Donald Rumsfeld, Condoleezza Rice and other top officials to come before hostile committees of inquiry to face interrogation on their conduct of the war. Some senior Democrats, including the man who could become the next chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Congressman John Conyers, are already talking of impeachment proceedings."
This is serious stuff. Is this really possible? An answer to this question lies in the series of just released opinion polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC. On Monday the polls predicted that Democrats were within striking distance of taking control of the US senate as Democratic senate candidates are tied, have a slight edge or an outright lead in every one of 10 pivotal battleground states. No Democrat trails in those races; no Republican leads. Democrats must gain six seats to capture control of the 100-member Senate. They have a strong chance to win all seven at-risk Republican Senate seats -- with their candidates tied in Virginia and Missouri, holding a slight edge in Ohio, Rhode Island and Tennessee, and leading in Montana and Pennsylvania.
The possibilities of the Democrats taking over the House of Representatives are far greater and almost every expert and analyst believes this will happen even if Bush retains his majority in the Senate. The sudden and disgraceful exit of Mark Foley, a top Florida Republican from Congress, after admitting to sending sex emails to a page (young boys and girls who work as messengers on Capitol Hill), has led to a wider scandal involving an alleged cover-up by the top Republican leadership. Thus not only Foley's but many other house seats may fall in the hands of Democrats who need just 15 extra wins to get a majority in the 536-member house.
The troubles for Bush have come in droves. Though General Musharraf created some minor controversies with his disclosures about the CIA paying cash to Pakistan in return for terrorists, or his public sparring with key US ally Hamid Karzai, tons of trouble was dumped on Bush by Bob Woodward, the celebrated Washington Post journalist in his latest book 'State of Denial'.
The book essentially accuses Bush of lying to the American public about the Iraq war and comes to the conclusion that the war has become a malignant obsession of the US President who is quoted in the book as telling his close associates that he will not withdraw from Iraq even if only his wife Laura and his dog Barney remain on his side.
Woodward says this is a very powerful manifestation of Bush's resolve. The potential loss of both legislative chambers to the Democrats in next month's elections would not affect the presidency. Evidently nothing, no evidence, no statistical data, will change his mind.
The polls show voters who don't like Bush are taking it out on the Republican candidates, regardless of whether Republicans run from or with the president. Rhode Island gave Bush his worst ratings of any battleground state -- 70 per cent disapproval. Voters in all but one state rank Iraq as their top concern, above terrorism, despite Bush's campaign to link the unpopular war to the more broadly supported effort against terrorism. A majority of voters think Iraq is going badly. Those who think that support Democrats by solid margins. The fact that Democrats haven't spelled out clear alternatives on Iraq -- a main complaint from Republicans -- doesn't seem to matter.
So what will happen to Pakistan and General Musharraf if Bush and his party actually lose both the congressional houses? Opinion on this issue is divided among US experts but there is a widespread consensus that pressure on Musharraf to restore 'true and meaningful democracy' would increase considerably with the Congress taking a more aggressive posture.
Writing in the 'Wall Street Journal' last week, Robert L. Pollock, a member of the journal's editorial board, touched this subject saying General Pervez Musharraf is America's favorite dictator. "The Bush administration seems to consider the Pakistani general -- who took power in a 1999 military coup -- an indispensable ally, and has yet to publicly pressure him on the democracy front. Democrats and foreign policy thinkers of the 'realist' school seem equally comfortable with the idea of General Musharraf running Pakistan for the indefinite future."
Behind this bipartisan support, or at least acceptance, Pollock wrote, is Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, and the perception that Musharraf is the only one standing in the way of its takeover by a radical Islamic government. "But there are good reasons to doubt this perception, and to suspect that allowing a permanent 'Musharraf exception' to the democracy agenda will do more harm than good."
Another South Asia expert, Ambassador Dennis Kux of the Woodrow Wilson Centre believes that while President Bush will still be around for two more years and in control of the foreign policy, with the Democrats in control of the Congress, pressures on Musharraf to hold genuinely free and fair elections will multiply.
Kux says two other key issues will also determine how the next Congress and Bush Administration will treat Musharraf --- the Taliban question and the recent Indian charges that Pakistan's ISI was directly involved in the Mumbai blasts, if the Indians produce credible evidence to that effect.
There is a widespread perception in the Pakistani-American community, as well as back home, that if the political power of Bush weakens after the November polls, the ripple effects on General Musharraf would be equally damaging.
Ambassador Kux does not believe this will have an immediate debilitating effect on Musharraf but he says if the Senate and House Committees start scrutinizing Musharraf's democratic credentials, as they will, the heat would be felt all around.
After Musharraf's recent 'royal' visit to the Bush kingdom, the situation is going to change in about five weeks. With Bush caught up in his own home troubles, possible impeachment, indictments, trials and God knows what, General Musharraf will need a quick change of strategy to depend less on Washington and to strengthen his political base at home.
Email: ssehbai@hotmail.com
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