Taliban Rising?

Daily Times, January 2, 2006

VIEW: Taliban rising in Afghanistan? —Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan
Syndicated columnist Gwen Dyer predicted in March 2004 that the Karzai government will last for three years; the American troops will withdraw from Afghanistan within four years; and the Taliban will be in power within five years — by 2009.

Some commentators see signs of this in the American decision to pull out 4,000 US troops (to be replaced by 6,000 NATO troops). They also point to Taliban presence in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas close to eastern Afghanistan.

2005 was clearly the toughest year for the Karzai government and its American allies despite some cosmetic progress like elections. It is generally agreed that the progress is not sustainable and those in the saddle in Kabul are not natural leaders of Afghanistan. Most analysts following the events in Afghanistan believe that in years to come the situation will get even worse.

The latest videotape I have received shows new Al Qaeda and Taliban training camps in Afghanistan. This demonstrates clearly that the policies of besieging and chasing them have failed to produce the desired results.

US and allied troops are facing stiff resistance from Taliban and their supporters in Afghanistan. Zabul province in the south of Kabul is one of the centres of resistance against Americans. Taliban Mulla Dadullah, the general Taliban commander, has threatened to transform the area into a Panjshir Valley (which became famous for resistance to Soviet occupation in 1980s).

The resistance in Afghanistan is visibly snowballing, demographically and geographically. While it was limited earlier to Khost and Paktia, it is now expanding in to Kunar, Nangarhar, Zabul, Ghazni and Kandahar as well as the northern parts of Afghanistan. Two Hezb-e-Islami factions, led by Gulbaddin Hekmatayar and Yunis Khalis, have also joined the Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters (mostly Uzbek, Chinese and Pakistani tribesmen).

More than 500 Afghans and foreigners, including Chinese and Americans, were killed in Afghanistan during 2005. The violence was responsible for the postponement of elections in September.

The Taliban are gaining credibility and legitimacy for several reasons. For one, the government has failed to deliver and the law and order situation has deteriorated to an alarming level. Kidnapping children and trade of infant organs are on the rise.

Recruitment as fighters is also one of the major employment avenues. For decades people have depended on warlords for their livelihood. These warlords now constitute the real threat to the security of the country.

But President Hamid Karzai has allowed warlords to return to politics. This has made militia leaders even more powerful for they can now formulate state policies. Given their treacherous track record they have to be seen as part of the problem rather than the solution. The compromise also belies the US position that American occupation has ended the era of warlords.

Poppy cultivation and drug smuggling is the second most important source of livelihood in Afghanistan. The government, which is now trying to curb the drug menace, is therefore seen by many Afghans as depriving them of their only source of income without providing a viable alternative. This has prompted the people to turn against the central government whose writ now scarcely goes beyond Kabul, which President Karzai rules with the support and assistance of US guards. There have been three assassination attempts on his life, ironically, in his own city, Kandahar.

On the other hand the growing drug trade is a stigma for the Karzai government as well as the occupation forces. The Taliban regime had contained and brought down drug trade — a fact conceded by the United Nations. There are now reports suggesting that the Taliban and Al Qaeda groups are using drug money to finance insurgency against US-led forces.

What is happening in Afghanistan is significant for several reasons. The most distinctive dimension of this insurgency is that it appears to be gaining momentum without support from any government. Who, then, is backing the militant groups? Apparently the militant groups enjoy societal support for people see good in their ideology, tribal ways, general morality and collective psychology. These factors not only get them recruits but also hiding places — making the task of the foreigner hunting them even more difficult.

Another reason behind increasing armed resistance is that the majority Pushtoon population feels marginalised as occupation forces have helped minority ethnic groups into powerful offices. The fact that after 9/11 the Americans have been associating Pushtoons with Al Qaeda and Taliban, has forced the majority ethnic group to resort to militancy to restore its traditional right to govern Afghanistan.

Also, most Afghans resent the presence of foreign troops in their country. The occupation is all the more intolerable because Americans have refused to set themselves a timetable for withdrawal. The situation might eventually compel the minority Northern Alliance, main support base for US, to turn against occupation forces.

The fact that the promised reconstruction of Afghanistan with foreign funds has not materialised has not helped either. Most of the little money that has come Afghanistan’s way has served military objectives rather than improving things at the grassroots level. This reconstruction work is restricted mostly to northern Afghanistan. This is creating difficulties for the repatriation of Pushtoon refugees. Reconstruction pledges by the international community have not materialised.

Finally, the occupation has revived and strengthened the warlords, the very people Afghans blame for destroying their country. Unfortunately the US sees these warlords as champions of democracy and human rights.

The writer is bureau chief of Al Jazeera satellite channel in Pakistan and author of ‘Bin Ladin revealed’