Modi’s Coronavirus Test
The Pandemic Offers a Struggling India the Chance to Reset
By Anubhav Gupta and Puneet Talwar
Foreign Affairs, May 04, 2020
The novel coronavirus is an enormous test for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Not only must his government contain the spread of the virus in one of the densest, most populous countries in the world but it must prevent social-distancing measures from pushing India’s flagging economy over the cliff into free fall. Even before the pandemic, the country was struggling with slow growth, high unemployment, and widening social divisions. Now, the coronavirus is exacerbating all three problems—risking a perfect storm of health, economic, and social crises.
But the pandemic also gives Modi a chance to hit the reset button. So far, he deserves credit for acting with urgency. India evacuated its citizens from China, Iran, and other epicenters of the virus in February and March. It shut its borders to almost all foreigners and initiated a contact-tracing and testing operation for Indians coming into the country. And when it became clear by late March that the virus was already spreading within India, the government announced a national lockdown that so far has slowed the infection rate. If Modi seizes this opportunity to address India’s underlying problems as he battles COVID-19 and the economic wreckage it has caused, he has a chance to emerge from this crisis in a stronger position both at home and abroad.
INDIA IN CRISIS
After winning a landslide reelection victory in 2019, the Modi government seemed poised to focus on economic development. Instead, it used its mandate to enact divisive social policies. The revocation of Kashmir’s special autonomy in August and the passage in December of a citizenship bill seen as discriminating against Muslims drew widespread international scrutiny and domestic criticism. In the early months of this year, Indians packed the streets in the largest display of public opposition that the Bharatiya Janata Party–led government has seen in its six years in power.
By then the country was already in the midst of a sharp economic downturn. This month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that India grew at a rate of only 4.2 percent in 2019, much slower than previously predicted and down from eight percent as recently as 2016. Modi’s government has struggled to create jobs for India’s disproportionately young population, presiding over the highest unemployment rate in 45 years.
The pandemic has made the jobs crisis worse. In late March, Modi took the decisive step of issuing a national stay-at-home order that closed most shops and businesses. As a result, India’s unemployment rate nearly tripled from 8.7 percent to 23.4 percent in the span of a month, according to an estimate by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. Implemented with less than four hours of warning, the lockdown also hurt the millions of poor Indians who work in the informal sector (which accounts for over 80 percent of all jobs in the country) and left hundreds of thousands of migrant workers stranded. National and international media fixated on scenes of thousands of migrants thronging bus stations in major cities as they sought to return to their villages, forcing Modi to apologize for the suddenness of the lockdown.
Despite its abrupt implementation, the national lockdown was the right move. Thanks to Modi’s swift action, the country of more than one billion had only around 33,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of May 1. The latest numbers suggest that the rate of new infections is slowing, with cases now doubling every ten days compared with every four at the start of April.
It is too soon, of course, to celebrate. The lack of widespread testing means there are likely many unreported cases. Out of an abundance of caution, India has extended by a further two weeks the lockdown that was scheduled to end after May 3. Modi will face immense pressure in the coming days and weeks as he balances public health exigencies with the lockdown’s damage to the economy. As a result of COVID-19, the IMF expects the Indian economy to grow at only two percent in 2020, while other analysts believe the economy could even shrink by one percent this fiscal year. India may suffer its lowest growth rate in 40 years as a result of the pandemic.
For complete article, click here
Why Gulf States Are Backtracking on India
Islamophobia is undoing years of New Delhi’s diplomatic gains in the Middle East.
BY Sumit Ganguly, Nicholas Blarel, Foreign Policy May 5, 2020
Over the last several years, especially under the tenure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India had made significant strides in its relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf. And it achieved those gains while also maintaining cordial ties with two of the principal antagonists in the region: Iran and Saudi Arabia. For an unabashedly Hindu nationalist government, this was no minor accomplishment, especially since Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates were historical partners of India’s archrival, Pakistan. But the relationships that New Delhi so carefully crafted over the past five years—drawing on the efforts of the previous government—are now at substantial risk. Domestic developments targeting its 200 million Muslims are beginning to unravel India’s diplomatic feat.
Official reports suggest that the coronavirus outbreak has only had a limited impact on India’s population—at least so far. But despite the relatively low reported numbers of infections and deaths, India’s Muslim community has faced online and physical assaults during the coronavirus crisis—incidents in which members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are also implicated. The attacks came in the wake of news that an Islamic sect, the Tablighi Jamaat, held a large annual meeting in New Delhi’s Nizamuddin district in early March, right as countries were beginning to restrict public gatherings to prevent the virus’s spread. With nearly 3,000 pilgrims from over a dozen countries packed in cramped quarters, the coronavirus spread rapidly; the assembly has now been identified as a major source of infections in India. There is little question that holding this meeting—despite widespread knowledge of the virus—was reckless. But the blatant abuse of India’s Muslim communities now places at risk New Delhi’s carefully tailored diplomatic approach to the Middle East, and especially toward the Gulf states.
In a rare public move, Princess Hend al-Qassimi of the UAE has been expressing her dissatisfaction with a rising Islamophobia among Indians. “I miss the peaceful India,” she tweeted on May 4. And that came after she directly highlighted a tweet from an Indian living in the UAE as “openly racist and discriminatory,” reminding her followers that the punishment for hate speech could be a fine and even expulsion. These statements have followed other expressions of concern over the BJP’s treatment of Indian Muslims from across the Islamic world, including from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, which urged India to take urgent steps to protect the rights of its Muslim minority. This last criticism is particularly damning, as India had actively worked to repair its historically problematic ties with the group and had managed to be invited as guest of honor at the annual Organisation of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in March 2019.
Coronavirus Spread in India Sparks Intolerance Toward Minority Muslims - VOA
What the world can learn from Kerala about how to fight covid-19 - MIT Technology Review
Covid-19, India and crisis communication - Observer Research Foundation (Source for photo above)
But the pandemic also gives Modi a chance to hit the reset button. So far, he deserves credit for acting with urgency. India evacuated its citizens from China, Iran, and other epicenters of the virus in February and March. It shut its borders to almost all foreigners and initiated a contact-tracing and testing operation for Indians coming into the country. And when it became clear by late March that the virus was already spreading within India, the government announced a national lockdown that so far has slowed the infection rate. If Modi seizes this opportunity to address India’s underlying problems as he battles COVID-19 and the economic wreckage it has caused, he has a chance to emerge from this crisis in a stronger position both at home and abroad.
INDIA IN CRISIS
After winning a landslide reelection victory in 2019, the Modi government seemed poised to focus on economic development. Instead, it used its mandate to enact divisive social policies. The revocation of Kashmir’s special autonomy in August and the passage in December of a citizenship bill seen as discriminating against Muslims drew widespread international scrutiny and domestic criticism. In the early months of this year, Indians packed the streets in the largest display of public opposition that the Bharatiya Janata Party–led government has seen in its six years in power.
By then the country was already in the midst of a sharp economic downturn. This month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that India grew at a rate of only 4.2 percent in 2019, much slower than previously predicted and down from eight percent as recently as 2016. Modi’s government has struggled to create jobs for India’s disproportionately young population, presiding over the highest unemployment rate in 45 years.
The pandemic has made the jobs crisis worse. In late March, Modi took the decisive step of issuing a national stay-at-home order that closed most shops and businesses. As a result, India’s unemployment rate nearly tripled from 8.7 percent to 23.4 percent in the span of a month, according to an estimate by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. Implemented with less than four hours of warning, the lockdown also hurt the millions of poor Indians who work in the informal sector (which accounts for over 80 percent of all jobs in the country) and left hundreds of thousands of migrant workers stranded. National and international media fixated on scenes of thousands of migrants thronging bus stations in major cities as they sought to return to their villages, forcing Modi to apologize for the suddenness of the lockdown.
Despite its abrupt implementation, the national lockdown was the right move. Thanks to Modi’s swift action, the country of more than one billion had only around 33,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of May 1. The latest numbers suggest that the rate of new infections is slowing, with cases now doubling every ten days compared with every four at the start of April.
It is too soon, of course, to celebrate. The lack of widespread testing means there are likely many unreported cases. Out of an abundance of caution, India has extended by a further two weeks the lockdown that was scheduled to end after May 3. Modi will face immense pressure in the coming days and weeks as he balances public health exigencies with the lockdown’s damage to the economy. As a result of COVID-19, the IMF expects the Indian economy to grow at only two percent in 2020, while other analysts believe the economy could even shrink by one percent this fiscal year. India may suffer its lowest growth rate in 40 years as a result of the pandemic.
For complete article, click here
Islamophobia is undoing years of New Delhi’s diplomatic gains in the Middle East.
BY Sumit Ganguly, Nicholas Blarel, Foreign Policy May 5, 2020
Official reports suggest that the coronavirus outbreak has only had a limited impact on India’s population—at least so far. But despite the relatively low reported numbers of infections and deaths, India’s Muslim community has faced online and physical assaults during the coronavirus crisis—incidents in which members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are also implicated. The attacks came in the wake of news that an Islamic sect, the Tablighi Jamaat, held a large annual meeting in New Delhi’s Nizamuddin district in early March, right as countries were beginning to restrict public gatherings to prevent the virus’s spread. With nearly 3,000 pilgrims from over a dozen countries packed in cramped quarters, the coronavirus spread rapidly; the assembly has now been identified as a major source of infections in India. There is little question that holding this meeting—despite widespread knowledge of the virus—was reckless. But the blatant abuse of India’s Muslim communities now places at risk New Delhi’s carefully tailored diplomatic approach to the Middle East, and especially toward the Gulf states.
In a rare public move, Princess Hend al-Qassimi of the UAE has been expressing her dissatisfaction with a rising Islamophobia among Indians. “I miss the peaceful India,” she tweeted on May 4. And that came after she directly highlighted a tweet from an Indian living in the UAE as “openly racist and discriminatory,” reminding her followers that the punishment for hate speech could be a fine and even expulsion. These statements have followed other expressions of concern over the BJP’s treatment of Indian Muslims from across the Islamic world, including from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, which urged India to take urgent steps to protect the rights of its Muslim minority. This last criticism is particularly damning, as India had actively worked to repair its historically problematic ties with the group and had managed to be invited as guest of honor at the annual Organisation of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in March 2019.
For complete article, click here
Also see:
In India, Coronavirus Fans Religious Hatred - New York TimesCoronavirus Spread in India Sparks Intolerance Toward Minority Muslims - VOA
What the world can learn from Kerala about how to fight covid-19 - MIT Technology Review
