Pakistan Elections 2013: Trends and Prospects

Herald Exclusive: PML-N PTI are Neck to Neck
However, expert survey indicates that PML-N and PPP are ahead of PTI in the election race
Saba Fatima Mirza and Faiza Shah
May 8, 2013

The May 11 election appears too close to call, with two main contenders enjoying almost the same voter approval ratings and the third one being not very far behind, the results of an exclusive public opinion poll conducted by the Herald magazine show.

A very high 95.1 per cent of the 1285 poll respondents say they are registered to vote and 25.68 per cent of these registered respondents say they intend to vote for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), 24.98 per cent of them say their vote will go to Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and another 17.74 per cent want to vote for Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

In Punjab, where more than half of all National Assembly contests will take place, PMLN seems to be the party of choice, with 38.66 per cent of the respondents indicating support for it, followed by PTI at 30.46 per cent. The outgoing ruling party in Islamabad, PPP, is trailing way behind at 14.33 per cent.

In Sindh, PPP still enjoys the biggest share of support with 35.21 per cent respondents indicating it as their party of preference, followed by Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 19.37 per cent support, PTI with 8.45 per cent support and PML-N with 8.1 per cent among the survey respondents.

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On Eve of Elections, a Dismal Public Mood in Pakistan
Rising Concerns about the Taliban
Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, May 7, 2013

Overview:

As Pakistan prepares for national elections, the country’s public mood is exceedingly grim. Roughly nine-in-ten Pakistanis believe the country is on the wrong track, and about eight-in-ten say the economy is in poor shape.

Meanwhile, concerns about extremist groups have increased markedly. More than nine-in-ten Pakistanis describe terrorism as a very big problem, and about half now say the Taliban is a very serious threat to their country. For the first time since the Pew Research Center began polling on these issues, the Taliban is essentially considered as big a threat to Pakistan as longtime rival India.

While worries about the Taliban are growing, there is almost no desire to see the United States extend its fight against the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan. Two-in-three Pakistanis say it is a good thing that the U.S. plans to remove most of its troops from Afghanistan by 2014. At the same time, Washington’s use of drones to target extremists in Pakistan is widely unpopular.

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Other Election Polls and Surveys - 2013

Generation Next Goes to the Polls: Dawn - April 2013
Views are divided on whether vote should be for the person (48%) or the party - Gallup Pakistan - May 2013
Record 60pc turnout in polls predicted - Nation
Polls suggest record turnout in Pakistan election despite campaign bombings  - RFI

Trends:

Pakistan Elections: What you Need to Know - eNCA
Killings fail to halt Pakistan election - By Asad Hashim, Al Jazeera - May 4, 2012
Liberal parties under siege: With their targeting by terrorists, Pakistan's elections are being held in a climate of fear - The Times of India
Pakistan election: 'Where is Bilawal Bhutto'? - Telegraph
Pakistan's ANP leader on Taliban election threats - BBC
Imran Khan fall sympathies could boost prospects in Pakistan election - Guardian

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