Musharraf's Future: Some More Analysis

Musharraf girds for collision with Chief Justice of Pakistan
Daily Times, May 11, 2007

ISLAMABAD: Despite public anger, media criticism and a virtually united judiciary’s opposition that have undercut his popularity and clout, President Pervez Musharraf looks bent on ousting Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry through the courts.

“He’s lost a lot of his authority,” said Daily Times Editor Najam Sethi. “He has to decide now how best to hold onto the authority he still has.”

Sethi believes the tide is carrying Musharraf toward a choice between either reaching a power-sharing deal with a civilian rival, such as self-exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, or invoking authoritarian measures. The trouble is, Bhutto will be shrinking away from a deal, and demand a higher price than she would have before Musharraf dug himself into a hole over the chief justice.

Ultimately, Musharraf might have to give up his post of army chief.

Political analysts are not alone in doubting whether Musharraf can ever recover the influence he wielded over the volatile Muslim nation before the judge stood up to him.

“He’s played his cards so badly. He could have turned the country around,” lamented Parveen, a well-to-do, middle-aged Islamabad woman. These days, she feels differently about the general she harboured such high hopes for when he came to power in a popular, bloodless coup in 1999, ending a decade of hapless civilian rule. “Oh for a Messiah,” she sighed.

In contrast, Chaudhry’s image has been burnished by media accounts of how he withstood pressure to resign from Musharraf and a handful of generals.

The independent-minded judge had already impressed people, if not the government and security agencies, by taking up awkward cases such as the whereabouts of missing detainees and a challenge to the sale of a state-owned steel maker.

Chaudhry, 58, has sought to maintain decorum, avoiding political statements while urging the legal community to uphold independence of the judiciary and supremacy of the constitution. The lawyers’ movement championing the chief justice will keep up the pressure. The bar in Karachi has invited Chaudhry to speak on Saturday, after which he is expected to go to Multan.

But the partisanship Chaudhry has provoked will make it difficult for him to resume his post, as he will be vulnerable to accusations of bias.

Analysts suspect Musharraf wants a more pliable chief justice to deal with constitutional challenges opponents may mount.

“The foremost objective on his agenda is his re-election in uniform by the present assemblies,” said Ayaz Amir, a prominent columnist with Dawn newspaper. “With each passing day it is more and more unlikely that he will realise that objective.”

A tipping point could turn out to be the stunning display of public support Chaudhry received on a drive to Lahore from Islamabad last weekend to address the Punjab capital’s lawyers and judges, some analysts say. Whatever Musharraf does, his next step in a crisis he brought on himself will be fraught with risk.

If he could not reach an acceptable political deal with Bhutto and took the authoritarian route instead, Musharraf would alienate the public. He would also make US allies think twice about whether he is a leader who can guide Pakistan to moderation and true democracy.

By all accounts Musharraf remains set against withdrawing the accusations against the chief justice, and seems confident the judges hearing the case will recommend Chaudhry’s removal.

A source close to Musharraf described the decision to set up a full court as “the first good news for the government since March 9”, and was optimistic the majority of judges would find in the government’s favour. “We are convinced that the full court and SJC will give a decision on merit and the president said he will accept the decision,” the source said.

Daily Times Editor Sethi saw compulsions other than the law. “It cannot be resolved legally because it has become a political crisis. The legal decision will be a political one.” reuters

Too early to write Musharraf’s political obituary’
By Khalid Hasan: Daily Times, May 11, 2007

WASHINGTON: President General Pervez Musharraf’s credibility stands “badly undermined” by the recent series of events, but it is too early to write his “political obituary,” according to South Asia Monitor, a monthly publication of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Recent events have cast doubt on the Pakistani military leader’s political savvy and, more importantly, his ability to control events, says the Monitor commentary by Teresita C Schaffer and Harris Qureshi. “As the time for elections approaches, both qualities are likely to be tested, and the likelihood of trouble in the streets has increased,” they write.

So far, they believe Musharraf’s relationship with the United States has been both an asset and a liability. Musharraf could weather this storm, but each outburst increases the odds that he will come to look like part of the problem instead of the solution, they argue.

Schaffer and Qureshi are of the opinion that the United States has treated the suspension of the chief justice with “kid gloves,” avoiding any criticism of the Pakistani government. Public criticism by senior administration officials stung the Pakistani government, and resentment of US high-handedness is very widespread in Pakistan. The White House continues to rely on Musharraf’s commitment to stability along the border with Afghanistan. However, closer scrutiny of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan is likely to become the norm.

They write, “After more than seven years of governing, his grip on keeping order has loosened, and the question of his legitimacy is reasserting itself. His recent efforts to manage domestic politics and the Afghan tangle have backfired. His effort to walk the fine line - keeping militant Islamic forces under control without confronting them -may be an impossible task. It is probably too soon to write his political obituary, but many, in Pakistan and elsewhere, are wondering at what point his control over events will slip below the critical level. In a country with weak political institutions, the key player to watch is the army.”

Schaffer and Qureshi are critical of the Waziristan agreement, which they maintain has not stopped the movement across the Afghan border. The Jamia Hafsa standoff, they write, shocked many observers. They quote Jamia Hafsa leader Maulana Abdul Aziz, who said in a sermon, “Enforcement of Islamic system is the job of the government, but it will be done by the people if the government fails.” The Jamia Hafsa incident presented Musharraf with unattractive options. If he cracked down on the madrassa women, he risked retaliation from their sympathisers as well as the public relations disaster of punishing a group of veiled women. If he let the incident go unpunished, he would create the impression that he could not keep order in the capital and would also risk disappointing the moderates in Pakistan, the natural constituency for the “enlightened moderation” that he has stressed in his dealings with the West.

The commentary, referring to the judicial crisis, notes that the suspension of the chief justice brought into the streets lawyers, a generally prosperous group often opposed to the government but not given to demonstrations. The uproar started in Punjab, the province that has dominated Pakistani public life since the country was founded, rather than in the often alienated smaller provinces. The recent crackdown on two of Pakistan’s major private television networks for their coverage of the street demonstrations suggests that Musharraf, who often prides himself on maintaining the freedom of Pakistan’s press establishment, has become less tolerant of his critics.

The authors believe that none of these incidents is sufficient to shake Musharraf’s hold on power, especially since the army remains disciplined, hierarchical and his. Nor has any clear leader of the opposition emerged. But both secular and religious Pakistanis have taken to the streets, something the army finds most distasteful. Musharraf’s power has been diminished, they add. His desire to hold the presidential election before those of the legislatures, and to remain in uniform, would have inspired only ineffectual grumbling six months ago. Today, Musharraf’s political manoeuvring may be the focus of more intense protest and he, as well as the army, is likely to be more careful about giving rise to political demonstrations.

The political turbulence has also given a new impetus to rumours of political deal-making between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. Inconclusive talks have taken place off and on between Bhutto and Musharraf for at least three years. Musharraf’s interest in a deal has evidently been strengthened by the events of the last eight months. From his perspective, an agreement that secured PPP support for his re-election would divide the opposition, give him a secular ally, and make him less dependent on the religious parties that have become much less willing to carry his water in recent months. Bhutto appears to want to drive a harder bargain under present circumstances, and Musharraf’s political party is not keen on sharing power with her.