Future of Liberal Politics in Pakistan

Future of liberal politics
By Dr Tariq Rahman: Dawn, May 8, 2007

WHEN Gen Musharraf forced Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto into exile, he created a political vacuum which the MMA, political opportunists and the MQM filled. Out of these, apart from some elements, only the MQM appeared to be a party that did not appeal to religious sentiments to seek power. In short, parties appealing to religion or supporting the military (or both) gained ground. In the long run, this is harmful for Pakistan’s political ethos.

In between a number of events occurred which tested the political power of the religious political groups. After 9/11, General Musharraf very wisely pulled back from covert militant operations in Kashmir. The religious elements were incensed and tried to assassinate him.

However, they could not bring the people on to the street — not even their own kind — in impressive numbers to force him to reverse this decision.

Not so wisely, the military government helped the US to wage an unjust war in Afghanistan. There were demonstrations in reaction but the people did not support them. Then came the Women’s Protection Bill where the MMA had to climb down from its threat to resign en masse from the legislature.

Where the on-going judicial crisis is concerned, despite the fact that the leaders of the MMA are prominent, the real resistance is by the lawyers and the silent majority supports it by remaining glued to their TV channels. Indeed, the electronic channels — which the religious lobby attacks frequently — is the one which has defiantly covered all aspects of the crisis. Aaj, the channel on which journalist Talat Hussain has his show, is supported by all kinds of people, including religious ones, in its brave attempt to resist Pemra’s pressure to throttle it.

In short, while the religious lobby has increased in street power (as evidenced by the Jamia Hafsa incident) over the last two decades, it is not yet strong enough to have voter appeal all over the country. The same street power has turned into some kind of warlord rule — with the warlords being different groups of the local Taliban — in parts of the NWFP.

This, however, is lack of good governance and not the people’s support of Talibanisation. People turn to the local mosque, or the Taliban warlord, in Fata or elsewhere when they seek justice as the courts are both corrupt and slow. They get rough and ready justice but at the cost of obeying what their benefactor calls the Sharia.

This being so, is it possible for liberal and moderate parties to create a coalition in order to defeat the rightist forces in the upcoming elections? The press of May 4 seems to suggest there is. There is report citing the MQM that it would welcome the PPP “on board”. This has come in the wake of news that the PPP is on the verge of striking a deal with General Musharraf.

Presumably the PPP will support him as president in addition to being the army chief while the military will drop all cases against Benazir Bhutto. This version of the ‘deal’ is denied both by the government and the PPP. Several top-ranking PPP leaders spoke to the press explicitly denying any “unconstitutional” deal (i.e. the army chief being president). However, Benazir Bhutto herself was less forthright in her denials.

The other non-religious forces are the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement (PONM). They appeal to ethnic politics and it is not immediately obvious how the military-backed government, ever averse to this kind of politics, will accommodate them.

Indeed, the Punjabi urban opinion, as well as Punjabi politicians and intellectuals, are so suspicious of them that any understanding with them can only be fragile and temporary. This leaves us with the PPP and a few independents to sway the votes in the Punjab and to have the numbers and the moral authority to make liberal policies ascendant in the country.

Unfortunately, Benazir Bhutto has not spelled out her future policies. We do not know if she will continue the peace process with India. We are not told whether she will show flexibility on Kashmir which General Musharraf did. What will she do about the war on terror? Will she introduce textbooks which do not glorify war or contain India-bashing material? Will she strike down laws which make it possible to oppress minorities or others in the name of Islam? Will she strengthen women? If so, how? Will she actually reduce the power of the military? If so, in politics? Or business? Or education? Or jobs? Or foreign policy? Or the Kashmir policy? Or the nuclear policy? Or all? And how?

The worse scenario for Benazir Bhutto personally and liberal politics is that the PPP should come to power after an unconstitutional deal with the military. In such a deal, the PPP would have to accept the unprincipled stance that an army chief can be the president of the country at the same time. Also, if the PPP has to distance itself from supporting Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, irrespective of the legal verdict in the case, it will lose votes.

Suppose, then, that the PPP comes into power through a secret understanding that the prime minister will leave foreign policy, nuclear policy, Kashmir policy and the army’s business and other interests to the military or its representatives.

This will mean a situation like that of 1989 when Benazir Bhutto came into power for the first time.

At that time, however, it was known to all serious observers of politics that she was not allowed to exercise power in any meaningful way. When she was removed through a palace coup, democrats sympathised with her.

This time, however, if she accepts such conditions she will commit political suicide. Nobody will sympathise with her as she would appear unprincipled. The other PPP leaders would not be able to control the damage. Indeed, the longer she stays as the puppet prime minister — which is what she will be with a uniformed president at the

helm — the more she will be blamed for whatever goes wrong and never praised for things which go right.

That will be tragic for Benazir Bhutto herself and, more importantly, for liberal politics in the country.

The solution, however, is in Benazir Bhutto’s hands. She should take the voters into confidence as to the specific policies she will implement. And, what is more, these should be sincerely meant and actually implemented if she comes to power. If General Musharraf wins the presidential election as a civilian president within the ambit of the Constitution, she should welcome him.

However, she should strike no underhand deals with opportunists, intelligence agencies or military commanders. If she cannot come into power without these, so be it. She will serve the liberal cause better as a symbol of political integrity from the opposition benches.

Under these transparent conditions she should take all the ethnic parties, including the MQM, the PONM and the ANP, into confidence. However, if power passes to them in the provinces, she should be ready to be tolerant and magnanimous.

Her father’s policy of alienating his rivals in Balochistan and the NWFP in 1973 was wrong and should be shunned. If the MMA wins, then it too should be welcomed like any other political party. Liberal politics allows diversity and suppresses no point of view provided it is not expressed by force.

Above all, both before the election and after it; whether she wins or loses, the PPP should be so principled and reasonable that it should convert the fence-sitters in its favour. The PPP was a party of mass appeal in 1970 but it also had street roughs in it. Moreover, Bhutto was charismatic but also tyrannical in his ways.

That is why the PPP alienated a large section of the middle class including the officer corps of the armed forces.

This legacy has got to be rid of now with great effort. The PPP should become a party which stands for the poor, for women, for democratic values and has no roughs in it. This new PPP will be a liberal force to reckon with and, even if it does not win the coming election, it will remain the only viable alternative to Talibanisation in Pakistan.