Changing Realities in Kashmir

Kashmir: Hizb on Crucial Juncture
Muhammad Amir Rana
South Asia Net, PIPS: April 3, 2007

The government officials in India and Pakistan are claiming that the peace process between the two countries is about to yield a solution of Kashmir issue. The demilitarization and militancy in Kashmir were the major difference areas in the peace process between Pakistan and India. New Delhi has linked demilitarization of Kashmir to a substantial decline or a complete end to militancy. During the last SARRC summit in Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had signaled to his Pakistani counterpart Shaukat Aziz about the demilitarization in Kashmir within two months after assessing the level of militancy. For this purpose, Indians are assessing the LoC only because they are sure that Kashmiris can not sustain a long battle without a genuine support from Pakistan.

The Indian media reports are even encouraging that the graph of infiltration has reached at zero level and the pace of militancy is going slow. Muzamil Jaleel reported in Indian Express, while quoting Indian security forces sources, that the number of active militants in Jammu and Kashmir has declined drastically and the police estimate the total militants at around 400. The last fidayeen attack in Srinagar took place in October 2006. Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad’s operational capabilities are at its lowest level and infiltration too is officially at its lowest. Such reports will boost the Indian confidence to speed up the peace process, but until militant movements are there, nothing could be predicted that militancy would not speed up again. As it happened first time, Lashkar-e-Taiba showed its strength in the streets of Srinagar in the welcoming rally for Syed Ali Gillani. There are reports that now militant groups have developed their own mechanism to carry out their movement without external support. Muzamil as well indicates in his report that the Hizbul Mujahideen, the largest indigenous militant outfit in Kashmir, is perhaps the only group that has been able to withstand the constant pressure of the security agencies. Its strength has always been its local cadre and networks.

That’s why the Kashmiri political leadership, either the separatists or pro-Indian, is now unanimously demanding to include militant leadership. The issue was also dominated in the third round table conference on Jammu and Kashmir in Delhi although boycotted both by the separatists’ leadership and pro-India Kashmiri Pundat groups but remaining had the consensus that without involving militant leadership, especially the Hizb, nothing will achieved.

In these circumstances, Hizb has gained a very crucial position. Not only the Hurriat leaders but Omer Abdullah, Mufti Saeed and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti have also been advocating talks with Hizb. Omer Abdullah is insisting that the feelings of the youth attached with the Hizb should be cared for. The Hizb response is also welcoming. It indicates the change of attitude from both sides. In the past, militant organizations and pro-Indian political parties would always exchange hostile statements and small Jihadi outfits like Al-Arifeen and Al-Nasireen used to immediately criticize any moderate move by the Hizb. Omer Abdullah also said in an interview, that his government had made the Hizb agree on a ceasefire, but during Mufti Saeed Government, all those commanders who had been engaged in the ceasefire were killed one by one. He was pointing to the central figure of ceasefire Abdul Majeed Dar and his fellow commanders such as Masood Tantray, Farooq Marcha and Commander Asad.

Hizb response is as well positive as looks ready to play any political role. Syed Salahuddin can play an important role in the ongoing peace process. He is not only the supreme commander of biggest Kashmiri separatist group but also the head of United Jihad Council, the alliance of 22 Kashmiri militant separatist organizations. He is in a position to develop consensus among separatist movements for announcing ceasefire. Salahuddin has opted the slogan of demilitarization, which is contrary to his previous claim for ‘independence through militant struggle’. In a recent statement, he said, “If Mirwaiz Omer Farooq or any other responsible person of the world gives us the guarantee that India would withdraw its forces, we have no reason to down our arms.”

New Delhi has set up a high-level committee for working out the suitable circumstances for demilitarization. IHK Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad had also said, “Indian military has to be a pulled out from Kashmir, sooner or later. Former chairman of APHC Abdul Ghani Butt was in Pakistan for the last two months on a mission to persuade Mujahideen to join the negotiations and he claimed that Pakistan wants an early settlement of the question of future of militancy in Kashmir. Would only the demand of ‘demilitarization’ satisfy the other militant groups even to the Hizb cadre? Salahuddin’s recent statements and interviews indicate that Hizb is considering demilitarization as a pre-requisite for initiating talks with India and at later stages it will demand for the release of all Kashmiri political prisoners including the militants and elimination of notorious anti-terrorists laws of POTA and PODA.

Apart from all these developments, Hizb is not looking hasty and might not announce the one-sided ceasefire this time. After Majeed Dar’s ceasefire experience, Salahuddin will not take any risk. In a recent interview on a Pakistani private TV channel, he clearly said that ‘now it is turn of India to restore trust through pulling out the military forces first. Mujahideen will not take more time and will announce ceasefire’. (3-5-07)