A General conspiracy?
By Zarar Khuhro
The News, March 20, 2007
There are three broad explanations of why the deplorable attack on the Jang group took place, and they are as follows: Number one: The attack was ordered and/or sanctioned by General Musharraf himself. Number two: The attack was carried out by elements loyal to Musharraf and eager to curry his favour, without his explicit orders. And finally number three: that there is a broad conspiracy to discredit Musharraf and the attack was carried out at the behest of the conspirators as part of this master plan.
If the first premise is true, then an attack on the press so soon after an attack on the judiciary can only mean that the General has tired of the democratic facade and now seeks to physically crush any institution than can pose a threat to him. The bureaucracy has long since been co-opted or cowed, and the mainstream political parties have been placed in de facto exile. This only leaves the press and the judiciary, since the army's support for Musharraf is assumed by virtue of his being a military man. Prior to seeking re-election from the existing assemblies and the next general elections, Musharraf may well want both the judiciary and the press effectively muzzled.
Premise two has Musharraf playing the part of a latter-day King Henry II, with the Jang group as Thomas Beckett. This scenario has an irate Musharraf, incensed by the negative press he has been getting on the CJ issue venting his anger in earshot of his subordinates. Perhaps he exclaimed "will no one rid me of this turbulent news network?", and this was taken to be an implicit order by some ministers/functionaries who jumped to fulfil their masters' commands. A great many of courtiers that Musharraf has surrounded himself with depend solely on him for their political existence and they have a serious interest in his continuing in power.
Therefore, they could take unilateral action with the double benefits of continuing their run in power as well as pleasing the boss. This premise can also be made to fit premise one, with Musharraf implicitly ordering the attack and also giving himself the added benefit of plausible deniability. If this is accepted as the truth, then there are two further explanations for Musharraf's subsequent apology. One is that he felt that the message had been effectively sent for the media to stop criticising him. In that case the apology is a cynical attempt to cover his tracks. The other explanation is that he miscalculated the reaction and decided to backtrack while he still could.
Now, let us come to the third premise, which is by far the most interesting one: that there is a conspiracy to defame and then dethrone Musharraf. Now, this begs the question, who are the conspirators? If this were a civilian government, then the usual suspects would be the opposition, backed by the armed forces. However, this is not a civilian government and there is not a single civilian who would on his own dare to conspire against a man who is not only president, but COAS as well.
The clear implication then is that there is an internal plot among elements in the armed forces to remove Musharraf, perhaps replacing him with another general, because no civilian would have the courage to move against him without serious backing. Other facts can also be made to fit this theory, as it is very rare for a Pakistani judge to take action against the government (that too a military government) without the support of a serious power group.
Also note the wordings of the recent US Senate bill, that aid to Pakistan should be contingent on democratic reforms as well as action against the Taliban. This follows hot on the heels of a statement by a CIA official that there is very little danger of an extremist takeover of Pakistan if Musharraf is removed, as he would then be replaced by another general and, most crucially, that the Pakistani army is mostly secular.
Previously, the USA has avoided putting too much pressure on Musharraf for fear that he was the only one who could stave off the nightmare scenario of a neo-Taliban Pakistan, but it increasingly seems clear that the USA has lost patience with Musharraf and may well be planning an exit strategy for him. At the very least, a conspiracy against Musharraf with the tacit backing of the US may be a ploy to induce him to 'do more' about the Taliban. In this scenario, Musharraf is replaced by another general who then calls for elections after presumably cutting a deal with the exiled leaders. This situation would mirror the one that took place after General Zia's death, though this time we will hopefully not lose an expensive C-130 in the process.
In any case, regardless of which explanation for the attack on Geo you subscribe to, there is but one conclusion to be reached, and that is that Musharraf's hold on power is slipping. If he ordered the attack himself then clearly he is in such a weak and insecure position that he feels he cannot retain power in the face of an independent judiciary and press. Worse, it smacks of hubris and an increased inability to tolerate dissent, which is generally the beginning of the end for any ruler. If an attack of this magnitude was ordered by his subordinates without his knowledge, then it shows how little control he has over the tools of the state. Finally, if there is indeed a conspiracy, then for the conspirators to act so openly speaks volumes about their strength relative to his.
It does no good for Musharraf to complain, as he did recently, that he gets the blame for everything that goes wrong. This government is a one-man show, and if he is willing to accept praise for what good his government has done, then he must accept blame as well. After all, he is COAS as well as president; where else does the buck stop if not at his dual desks? The fact is that Musharraf is largely responsible for his own problems, and for squandering his once considerable political goodwill. He has had plenty of time to try and forge a broad political consensus, but he has stubbornly refused to do so.
He speaks of enlightened moderation and praises liberal political forces, but it was the obscurantists that voted for the 17th amendment that kept him in power. He speaks of the need for society to confront extremism, but his government is unable to eject madrassah students from a children's library. Mullahs in Swat preach against polio vaccinations but his administration takes no action. On the other hand, a news network is attacked simply for reporting the truth and Javed Hashmi remains behind bars. Musharraf speaks of the need for true democracy, but Pakistan's two major political parties have been marginalized by any means available. Instead, we are expected to consider the establishment-inflated PML-Q to be a popular political party.
Musharraf is belatedly discovering the perils of allying with opportunists, because their only allegiance is to power and the benefits they can accrue from wielding it. If, for whatever reason, they feel that power is slipping from him they will abandon him in a heartbeat and seek out new masters. The very people who now sing his praises in public meetings will turn on him with relish. Note how the Chaudharies have distanced themselves, saying that the CJ issue is a matter between the army and the judiciary. In effect, they have contradicted Musharraf's assertion that the reference against the CJ was sent by the government and not personally by him.
Even in this situation, there is a way out for Musharraf. He has apologised to Geo, but he needs to go further and apologise to the entire nation. If he speaks of conspiracy, then it falls upon him to expose the conspirators, which, for a man of his resources, should not be difficult. The action was taken by the Punjab police, apparently on the orders of the SP. It would be a simple matter to find out who ordered the SP. This cannot be allowed to turn into one of the oft-promised 'startling revelations' that never see the light of day; heads must roll, and not just those of low-level police officials. If Musharraf is wise, he should use this as an opportunity to clean house. He should come out and admit that he has been badly advised, and that many in his cabinet do not deserve to be there.
It would be a golden opportunity to get rid of the loutish Wasi Zafar, and perhaps the uninformed Mr Durrani as well. Ideally, he should go on to announce the forming of a broader political consensus, which would of necessity include the PPP. If the conspiracy theory holds, this would at least buy him time. A good general should know to pick his battles, and to retreat when necessary. Crucially, a good general should know that to fight on too many fronts simultaneously is a recipe for disaster. The general has prided himself on being an honest man and in keeping with that self-image he should be honest with us, the people of Pakistan. While we're still listening.
The writer is a freelance columnist. Email: z_khuhro@yahoo.com
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