Developments in Waziristan

Pakistan’s embattled president touts gain in war on terror
* Musharraf may finally be reaping the success of North Waziristan agreement
Daily Times, March 24, 2007

LAHORE: President Pervez Musharraf is under attack as a judicial crisis enters another week of nationwide protests, but in the eyes of the international community, the “embattled president” may finally be seeing some success, according to a report in The Christian Science Monitor.

The report said that Islamabad was casting the continued fighting between Al Qaeda-linked militants and local tribes near the Afghan border as a success in the war against terrorism – where Musharraf seemed, until recently, to be failing.

The fighting, which has left more than 100 Al Qaeda-linked militants dead as of Thursday, would appear to vindicate a much-criticised North Waziristan peace agreement. Under the agreement, the government released Taliban-linked prisoners in North Waziristan in return for pledges from tribal elders to expunge the region’s foreign Islamist fighters.

Domestic and international critics doubt the prudence of such a move, but Islamabad pitched the deal as a glimmer of hope for FATA.

The Christian Science Monitor report said that for six months, the elders seemed to default on their promise. In fact, attacks inside Afghanistan tripled, as militants regrouped under what amounted to amnesty, according to critics.

The potential windfall comes at a critical time for Musharraf. The report said that his ability to govern seemed heavily shaken – both on the streets of Pakistan, where thousands have protested since he sacked the chief justice this month, and in the international corridors of power, where his Waziristan strategy has come under blistering attack from the Western governments who fund Pakistan’s military.

“In the beginning ... everybody thought nothing would come out of Musharraf’s deal with tribal militants. Now, it seems the government has convinced the local people to rise against the foreign militants,” Behroz Khan, a Peshawar journalist and expert on the tribal belt, was quoted as saying in the report. He said that targeting foreign militants could reduce violence in neighbouring Afghanistan, which hit record highs last year.

However, for several sceptics, the fighting has been a success only for Musharraf’s public image. They see the flare-up in the tribal belt as nothing more than a “local dispute that the government is spinning for good press at a time of crisis”, according to the report.

While this week’s developments could restore a bit of much-needed credibility, analysts say it is not likely to restore the “president’s chipped public façade”.

“The uprising against (the Uzbeks) does not in any way harm those who are against the coalition forces in Afghanistan,” said Ijaz Khattak, a professor of international relations at the University of Peshawar. “You deliver some people, you get a lot of propaganda, while actually nothing is happening.”

In fighting that has sharply intensified, pro-government tribal elder in South Waziristan Maulvi Nazir is mounting an attack against Uzbeks of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, an Al Qaeda affiliate that fought alongside Afghans and Arabs during the US invasion.

“We see it as a positive sign that our strategy is working in the tribal areas,” said Maj Gen Waheed Arshad, a spokesman for the military. “Tribes are on board with the government. The locals are fed up with foreign militants in their area.”

The development comes shortly after US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Congress in a hearing on Tuesday that Pakistan needed to “do more” in the tribal belt.

“You have to separate the population from the foreign fighters, and you do that through fighting – the Pakistani Army fighting them, through the tribals fighting them,” said Rice.

The Christian Science Monitor report said that if Waziristan’s tribal elders were fighting on behalf of the Musharraf government, it could constitute a significant turn in the violence plaguing Afghanistan. Since sweeping into Pakistan in 2001, foreign fighters – Uzbeks, Arabs, Chechnyans and others – have forged an uneasy alliance with local tribal people through religion, intermarriages and the blood bond of being mujahideen.

But in that time, the militants, estimated to number 2,000, also developed a reputation for violence and disrespect of local customs, observers say. Locals blame them for usurping the power of elders through targeted killings.

“I think the majority of the locals are against the foreigners. These foreigners are going on their own, challenging the writ of the local tribesmen,” said Khan, adding that foreign militants were also blamed for instigating most of the violence in Afghanistan.

With locals turning on them, foreign militants would loose their support base, and that could mean a blow to their ability to launch attacks inside Afghanistan, said Khan. “These foreigners are operating in Afghanistan and coming back. There will be no sanctuary for them.”

The report quoted observers as saying that the military must now weigh a cautious balance. By helping them subdue foreign militants, the government risks empowering the local tribes to the point where they may one day seek to challenge the government.

“The government should now try to establish its credentials with the local militants, and bring them into the political process, and establish its writ there,” said Talat Masood, a retired army lieutenant general and now a military analyst in Islamabad. daily times monitor