Between Cheney and a Hard Place: Who?

BETWEEN CHENEY AND A HARD PLACE
Mar 1st 2007: Economist

America wants its counter-terrorism money's-worth from Pakistan

LONG accustomed to being pilloried at home as an American stooge, Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, is also getting used to American criticism that he is not stooge-like enough. This week Dick Cheney, the vice-president, popped in unannounced. Like other heavyweights before him, he pressed General Musharraf to "do more" to combat the Taliban's expected spring offensive against NATO in Afghanistan.

Congress is threatening to link further American financial and military assistance to Pakistan to a certification by George Bush that General Musharraf is actively battling the Taliban and al-Qaeda, both of which are said to be regrouping in Pakistan's tribal borderlands. Pakistan has received nearly $10 billion since pledging support to the "war against terror" in September 2001 and is due to receive nearly $1 billion in American assistance this year alone.

Afghanistan was the next stop on Mr Cheney's tour. Underlining the scale of the difficulties there, he was greeted by a suicide-bomber, who on February 27th attacked the American air base where he was staying, in Bagram near Kabul. Analysts said the audacious attack, in which the bomber and 11 others were killed, proved that the Taliban or al-Qaeda had infiltrated Afghan intelligence agencies, boding ill for NATO forces in the coming months.

Pakistan's foreign ministry responded angrily to speculation that Mr Cheney had admonished General Musharraf for his failure to crack down on Islamist extremists, declaring that Pakistan had done more than its share of the job and would "not take dictation from anyone". General Musharraf has criticised the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, for blaming Pakistan for his own government's failings. Before recent
American and British announcements of fresh troops for Afghanistan, he mocked the West's failure to send sufficient reinforcements, or to take casualties there. He has pointed to Pakistan's loss of over 500 soldiers fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda in its tribal areas. General Musharraf himself has escaped assassination attempts, blamed on Islamist extremists.

In America itself a White House spokesman refused to be drawn into rebuking General Musharraf, echoing an earlier American position that if there were any doubt about Pakistan's position it related more to its capacity than to its commitment. Nonetheless, American pressure on Pakistan is bound to rise if American casualties climb during the expected Taliban offensive.

How bad could relations get? If Pakistan's army balks at taking a tough stand against the Taliban, the Americans may take matters into their own hands and extend their strikes against militant camps across the border into Pakistan's tribal belt. That, in turn, would be sure to provoke a popular backlash against General Musharraf for not standing up to the superpower and protecting Pakistan's sovereignty. In an
election year, this is not a prospect he will relish.