'Ominous omens' for Pakistan's army: BBC

'Ominous omens' for Pakistan's army
By M Ilyas Khan: BBC News - November 8, 2006

Wednesday's attack by militants at the Pakistan army base at Dargai has profound implications for the government.

It calls into question the logic of last week's bombing of a madrassa in the tribal areas, and raises fears that a ceasefire recently signed in Waziristan could now be in jeopardy.

A previously unknown group is reported to have accepted responsibility for the attack, saying it was in response to the missile attack on the seminary.

But analysts are cautious in drawing their conclusions.

Sanctuaries

Dargai, the town in Malakand district where the attack took place, is a stronghold of the same religious organisation whose school in nearby Bajaur agency was hit in last week's air strike, which government forces said they carried out.

The Tanzim Nifaz Shariat Mohammadi (TNSM) group is alleged by the government to have links with the Taleban in Afghanistan.

It wields considerable influence in Malakand and Bajaur and includes elements that have fought in Afghanistan at one time or another during the past 25 years.

In addition, elements of Afghan resistance fighters loyal to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former mujahideen commander, are also known to have sanctuaries in Bajaur.


US and Afghan officials have accused these groups of launching attacks on coalition forces in the neighbouring Afghan province of Kunar.

Can it be that some of these elements, who have traditionally looked up to the Pakistani military establishment for support and protection, have now turned on their mentor?

If they have, the message is ominous.

Never before have so many Pakistan army soldiers died in a single attack by the militants.

Criticism

Instead of attacking one of many paramilitary garrisons located within the tribal region, they have crossed over into a settled area and taken a hit at regular army troops.

Questions are bound to be asked over security lapses which enabled the bomber to gain access to the camp and cause so many casualties.


The attack has without doubt dealt a blow to President Musharraf's policy of reconciliation with tribal militants.

The seminary was hit on the very day the Bajaur tribesmen were scheduled to sign a peace agreement with the Pakistani government.

Pakistan earlier signed several similar agreements with tribesmen in North and South Waziristan tribal regions.


The agreements brought hostilities to an end, but also sent troops to the barracks, leaving the local militants in control of the situation.

This attracted criticism from Western countries that believed the agreements would consolidate the militants' position.

Pakistani analysts were of the view that the agreements enabled the army to reduce its casualties, believed to have run into hundreds.

In Bajaur - before the attack on the seminary last week - there was no insurgency comparable to that seen in Waziristan.


But Wednesday's attack calls into question the wisdom of the government's decision to attack the madrassa - killing 80 people.

Commentators believe this reversal is the result of contradictions within the Pakistani system which is torn between international pressures and domestic compulsions.

The government is playing a delicate balancing act: it is eager not to provoke outright conflict with militants, but at the same time it wants to reassure the West that it is not passive when it comes to dealing with Islamic extremism.


But by appeasing the militants, it has only made them more powerful.

Far from bringing peace, the agreements with tribal militants appear to have increased rather than curbed militant infiltration into Afghanistan.

A firm policy decision to stamp out militancy from society may yet help improve the situation.

But this would require a thorough overhauling of the country's Afghan policy which has long used militancy as a policy tool to prevent "unfriendly" forces from taking power in Kabul.