Democrats' 100 Hour Agenda: Where Does Pakistan Stand?

The Democrats' 100-hour agenda: A view from America
By Shaheen Sehbai: The News, November 15, 2006
The writer is a senior Washington-based Pakistani journalist

The rising Democratic star Nancy Pelosi has announced that in her first 100 hours as speaker of the House of Representatives, she would push for "immediate implementation" of all of the 9/11 Commission's recommendations besides a host of other hot-button domestic issues. What does this mean for Pakistan and General Pervez Musharraf?

This 100-hour agenda, it must be noted, is in addition to what the Democrats and President George Bush will hammer out to change the US direction in Iraq, following the massive American mandate against Bush's "stay the course" policy. The first scapegoat of that policy was Donald Rumsfeld and many more may follow.

While Muslims and Pakistanis in particular are celebrating the Democratic victory, both Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and Foreign Minister Kasuri have repeatedly said that despite the Bush rout, there would be no policy ramifications for Pakistan.

But these statements are more to reassure themselves and their supporters in Pakistan. In fact Islamabad and General Musharraf are about to face the toughest challenges, pressures and threats coming from Washington as they have never before. The focus of the 'war on terror' is going to swiftly shift to Afghanistan and Pakistan as US involvement in the Iraq winds down and this will turn Pakistan into a hot seat.

In this context it would be relevant to recall the Pakistan- specific recommendations of the 9/11 Commission as well as progress reported on these recommendations one year later in 2005.

For instance "some progress" was reported on recommendations to "attack terrorists and their organisations", "minimal progress" was seen on "coalition strategy against Islamist terrorism" and "no progress" was seen on "coalition standards for terrorist detention."

Pakistan's endemic poverty, widespread corruption, and often ineffective government create opportunities for Islamist recruitment, the commission had found. "Millions of families send their children to religious schools or madressahs, some of which have been used as incubators for violent extremism," the report said, noting that on terrorism, "Pakistan helped nurture the Taliban and the Pakistani army and intelligence services, especially below the top ranks, have long been ambivalent about confronting Islamist extremists."

Pakistan has made little progress toward the return of democratic rule at the national level, although that turbulent process does continue to function at the provincial level and the Pakistani press remains relatively free, the report noted.

One year later the commission, in a follow-up report in November 2005, said though Musharraf had made real efforts to take on the threat from extremism, "yet Pakistan remained a sanctuary and training ground for terrorists. Musharraf does not appear to have lived up to his promises to regulate the madressahs properly or close down all those that are known to have links to extremist groups. Taliban forces still pass freely across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and operate in Pakistani tribal areas. Terrorists from Pakistan carry out operations in Kashmir. Finally, the results of promised democratization efforts are yet to be seen."

The follow-up report stressed that a "politically and economically stable Pakistan that is a committed partner in the war on terror is critical to US counterterrorism efforts. This cannot happen unless Pakistan is wholly committed to practical reform. The United States must be equally committed to helping Pakistan achieve practical economic and political reform."

The follow-up report recommended that "US should pressure Pakistan to act forcefully to close Taliban-linked madressahs, shut down terrorist training camps, and prevent Taliban forces from operating across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border."

When Nancy Pelosi pushes for "immediate implementation" of these recommendations in her 100-hour initiative, Islamabad can expect intense heat on sensitive issues like closing down the madressahs and eliminating the sanctuaries of terrorists.

Some analysts argue that the Democrats would focus more on US-specific measures like beefing up security at US ports and its borders with Canada and Mexico, yet there is a consensus that Afghanistan will become the main target of the war on terror and thus will Pakistan.

At a time when General Musharraf is battling the furious and belligerent tribesmen, who have escalated their resistance to suicide attacks on the Pakistan army itself, a Democratic push in the US for more Pakistani efforts against the Taliban and sanctuaries of future terrorists will put a double squeeze on Musharraf. If he does not deliver according to the US taste, the democracy screwdriver would be turned. If he delivers, he faces more ferocious domestic retaliation.

The 9/11 recommendations demand that US must adopt a broader approach to "targeting the roots of terrorism, including joint strategies for encouraging reform efforts in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, improving educational and economic opportunities in the Muslim world, identifying and eliminating terrorist sanctuaries, and making progress in the Arab-Israeli peace process."

Practically, as demonstrated by the US, this implicitly means that US would go for the terror targets, no matter where they are located, without bothering about the sovereignty of any country involved. Other than Pakistan, US forces have attacked Yemen once pursuing terrorists. The Bush administration is thus already set on this course and Bajaur was the latest example. But with the Democrats pushing for more, a repeat of Bajaur would become a frequent occurrence and that is where General Musharraf's skills and courage will be tested.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has been making some noise during his recent US and Canadian visit that Pakistan would "not allow" the US to violate its sovereignty. But when the US drones attack without seeking any permission, what Mr Aziz does about it has not been explained.

For instance one potent recommendation of the 9/11 Commission was to identify and prioritise terrorist sanctuaries. On page 367 the report says: "The US government must identify and prioritise actual or potential terrorist sanctuaries. For each, it should have a realistic strategy to keep possible terrorists insecure and on the run, using all elements of national power. We should reach out, listen to, and work with other countries that can help."

The follow-up report noted that though "some progress" was reported, the commission found "that there was little sign of long-term efforts in place to reduce the conditions that allow the formation of terrorist sanctuaries".

It very ominously observed: "We cannot afford to allow failing or failed states to become home bases for tomorrow's terrorists," and then proposed that the National Security Council Office for Combating Terrorism, the National Counterterrorism Centre, the State Department, the Department of Defence, and the CIA should, as a priority matter, agree on which countries are currently terrorist sanctuaries, and which countries have the potential for becoming such sanctuaries. Together these organisations should develop and implement comprehensive strategies for responding to terrorist sanctuaries and potential sanctuaries."

The Pakistani predicament has been aptly summarised by one Paul Wolf (not Paul Wolfowitz, the neocon World Bank chief) in an internet blog. He wrote: "I think that Pakistan is in a tight corner. I expect the US to take further military action in the tribal belt. Musharraf, by accepting responsibility for Bajaur, has gone out on a limb. The next time the US attacks innocent people in Pakistan, is he going to blame it on the Pakistani army again? How long can this strategy work? It seems like sometime he would get caught and it could be proved that the US was attacking inside Pakistan. In the long run, this drags Pakistan into the Afghan conflict and may even cost Musharraf his job -- or even his life. Soon he will have the world's record for surviving assassination attempts."

Email: ssehbai@hotmail.com