U.S. Military Operations in Pakistan targetting Osama and Co.?

Pakistan: Growing Possibilities of U.S. Operations?
Stratfor
September 22, 2006

Summary

Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said Sept. 22 that the tactics used in the killing or capture of al Qaeda leaders do not matter. This statement represents a major shift in Pakistan's policy on U.S. forces' conducting anti-militant operations on its soil. Islamabad has given in to pressure from the Bush administration to allow U.S. counterterrorism operations on Pakistani soil -- beyond the small-scale limited operations that take place routinely. When the United States launches these larger operations, they likely will create a major upheaval which could lead to instability in Pakistan.

Analysis

U.S. President George W. Bush and Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf held a press conference Sept. 22. After Bush responded to a question about whether U.S. forces had permission to go inside Pakistan, Musharraf asked Bush if he could add to his comments. Once he got the green light, Musharraf said, "We are on the hunt together. You want the person -- if at all we confront him, if at all we find out his location, we are quite clear what to do. But let's not get involved in how it ought to be done, by whom it ought to be done. There's total coordination at the intelligence level between the two forces. There's coordination at the operational level, at the strategic level, even at the tactical level. So, therefore, we are working together, and when the situation arises, we need to pick the right decision to strike." Bush cut Musharraf short by saying, "You probably don't want to let them know what we're thinking about anyway, do we?"

These comments mark the first time the Pakistani government has not expressed opposition to U.S. forces operating on Pakistani soil. Musharraf, who until recently was adamant that Pakistan's forces would be the only ones allowed to conduct counterterrorism operations in the country, has finally caved under pressure from the Bush administration. Though he did not directly say U.S. forces would be involved in any such operations, Musharraf's comments clearly indicate he is no longer against U.S. forces hunting for al Qaeda in northwestern Pakistan.

Musharraf's capitulation to Washington even showed in his response to Bush's comments that U.S. forces will absolutely go into Pakistan if they have intelligence on the whereabouts of al Qaeda's leadership. The Pakistani president said, "We would like to be able to carry out the operations ourselves." His tone was much more yielding than it was in his previous statements, in which Musharraf categorically ruled out any major U.S. operations in his country.

Considering the manner in which Islamabad and Washington have carefully dropped hints about U.S. operations in northwestern Pakistan, beginning with the deal in North Waziristan on Sept. 5, it appears both sides have carefully planned the disclosure of Musharraf's change of heart. Knowing full well they will be blasted with questions about Musharraf's comments to CBS's "60 Minutes" -- in which he said that former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage threatened then-Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence Gen. Mahmoud Ahmad that the United States would “bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age” after the Sept. 11 attacks -- they likely agreed that Musharraf would not comment on the "60 Minutes" interview during the press conference. Given his expressions and gestures, Musharraf was clearly tense during the conference, which was limited to two questions for each leader.

Musharraf's comments to "60 Minutes" -- which were clearly an attempt to counter any backlash in Pakistan -- and at the press conference set the stage for him to unveil his willingness to allow U.S. forces to operate on Pakistani soil. The fact that Musharraf declined to comment on the "60 Minutes" interview during the press conference -- citing a contract with the publisher of his forthcoming book that says he cannot discuss the book before it is published -- further shows that there has been a sea change in Islamabad's position. It also illustrates the heavy pressure the Bush administration has applied on the Pakistani president to cooperate with U.S. forces in their hunt for al Qaeda.

This comes at a time when Musharraf is at the lowest point in his political career -- and U.S. forces are most likely to take a more active role in northwestern Pakistan soon, sometime between Musharraf's return to the country and the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November. This means that there will not only be major gunbattles between U.S. forces and Islamist militants in northwest Pakistan, but there will also be major instability in the country.