Daily Times, July 5, 2006
EDITORIAL: Political faultlines not conducive to stability
All is not well with the opposition political parties horizontally across the divide between the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal or vertically within the respective alliances. Consider.
While the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) have finally managed to sign the Charter of Democracy in London, the deal was clinched after some friction and then too only because in the current situation they must decide whether to sail together or sink each other. Much the same goes for the MMA. Maulana Fazl ur Rehman, chief of his Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, says his partner Qazi Hussain Ahmed of the Jamaat-e-Islami is out on a limb and his decision to get resignations from JI parliamentarians as part of the MMA’s mass drive against the government has not been approved by the MMA Supreme Council.
“The proposal to resign from parliament was discussed in the MMA Supreme Council meeting, but obtaining resignations from JI parliamentarians at this stage was the sole decision of Qazi Hussain Ahmed,” said Maulana Fazl. “My prime concern is that if someone shows his cards too soon, he may lose everything.” But the Maulana ruled out any split in the MMA because of Qazi Hussain Ahmed’s solo flight. Mr Rehman is a shrewd politician and has managed to keep the MMA intact despite Mr Ahmed’s constant inclination to overreach. In the past also the MMA has come close to a split because of internal differences on how much pressure is to be exerted on the government. But for Mr Rehman’s timely interventions, Qazi Hussain Ahmed might have forced the alliance into a shipwreck. Still, the Maulana is likely to have a tough time pulling the Qazi back from the brink.
There are also differences between the two leaders on whether support should be extended to the ARD on the no-confidence motion it is preparing against the government of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. While Qazi Hussain Ahmed is ready to go along with the ARD, if for no other reason than simply because he would do anything to get rid of the current dispensation, Maulana Fazl may have reservations about the project. Criticising the move, he told the media that the decision was one-sided and made without consulting the MMA: “The decision shows that the ARD leadership wants to fight the war against the government inside the parliament and does not want to bring it to the streets. The war against this government can only be fought with the power of the masses, and that is why the MMA has decided to launch a mass contact campaign as a first step.”
This is as far as differences within the alliances go. Across the divide, the MMA remains lukewarm about going along with the ARD. Its demand that the ARD accept the revocation of all measures that have been taken by the government of General Pervez Musharraf under the rubric of “enlightened moderation” is unacceptable to the PPP. The PPP’s problem is not that General Musharraf has infused moderation but that he has not infused enough of it and has done so by keeping the PPP on the sidelines. The MMA has ideological differences with General Musharraf’s approach. It is difficult to see how the ARD and the MMA can go along unless the PPP changes its stance on women’s and minorities’ rights, education, the Hudood Ordinances, madrassa reforms and so on.
The only thing favouring the opposition in fact is an equal measure of infighting within the ruling League and its partners. Some elements within the party are more opposed to the PPP than to the MMA; similarly, within the ARD, the Nawaz League has more affinity with the MMA, especially the JI, than with the PPP with which it is currently associated. However, the ruling league cannot join up with the Nawaz League simply because it only recently split from the former. It is bedlam and it is difficult to see how such splintered elements can embark on any joint struggle against the government. The only hope for them is that come the next elections, the internal faultlines within the ruling league will give them an opportunity to make a comeback.
For his part, General Musharraf may think that the situation offers him a reprieve; he might also think that he will get the current parliament to elect him for another five-year tenure. Further ambivalence has also been created on the uniform issue. Such thinking will be problematic. The many contradictions of the system are likely to burst forth at election time and this does not portend well for political stability. This would also be the case if General Musharraf were to leave the scene and the opposition were in a position to take over. The faultlines within the opposition would then become visible and deepen.
This is the worst part of General Musharraf’s legacy and his greatest failure. In the seven years he has been in power, he has made no attempt to institutionalise the political functioning of the system. Evidently, he thinks that he can go it alone for the foreseeable future and that after him the national security establishment (the army) will ensure continuity as it did after the exit of General Zia. But that assumption may prove to be misplaced in the current domestic and international environment. Given their bitter experiences at the hands of the army, neither Ms Bhutto nor Mr Sharif may be prepared to merely sit in office and allow the army to wield power in the future as it has done in the past. *
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