How India sees Pakistan?

IPCS ARTICLE
Article no: 2063
IPCS Neighborhood Watch Series: Recent Developments in Pakistan

Report of IPCS Panel Discussion held on 30 June 2006 (Speakers: Vikram Sood & D. Suba Chandran) By Urvashi Aneja, Research Officer, IPCS

Speakers: Vikram Sood & D. Suba Chandran

The seminar focused on current developments in Pakistan with particular reference to the upcoming elections and what they suggest for India. Further, the current situation in PoK, Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP was also examined.

Vikram Sood

In Pakistan, the present item on the agenda is the next general election and whether Musharraf will remain in power. What kind of election will be held and what role will Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif play? It is clear that Musharraf would like to win the election hands down and not take any chances. He considers himself to be the saviour of Pakistan and cannot afford to lose the elections. Even the army does not want him to lose. At the same time, however, he must at least give the impression that the elections are held in a free and fair manner. He must be able to manage the elections and this is going to prove to be the main challenge. It is anybody's guess whether he will be able to retain power. However, some Pakistani analysts argue that he will be in power for the next 10 years, the first 5 of which he will spend consolidating democracy and the next 5 working on economic and social aspects. This means that a Musharraf led Pakistan is going to be India's neighbour for the next two parliamentary sessions. We must take this into account and consequently take a 10 year view on the matter. There is no guarantee that Bhutto or Sharif will be able to swing it in their favour and the next six months are crucial in this regard. Pakistani Intelligence services will make sure Musharraf stays in power and that Bhutto and Sharif are unable to make a dent in the Pakistani leadership. We must consider the possibility of a right wing Islamic government, under Musharraf, that will fill the existing vacuum.

Further, India has an all consuming obsession with Pakistan. Geo-political developments in the region have allowed a certain Pakistani adventurism that has contended every move made by India. It has used tactics of a non-conventional proxy war against India. However, what the Pakistani generals do not realise is that, even though India shares a high financial cost for the dispute, Pakistan shoulders a much greater economic and social burden. The Pakistani economy is suffering by holding every treaty with India hostage to the Kashmir issue. They must realise that they cannot take Kashmir by force, and that they are losing out on the benefits that entry into the expanding Indian market would offer. It is, therefore, Pakistan that urgently needs a way out. Pakistan is a garrison state with an India/ Kashmir policy. Yet, it is one of the strongest political players in the region. Musharraf insists that Pakistan is not India-centric though this is not true, as can be seen by the constant rearming of the army. It is, after all, not for nothing that Pakistan has rejected an offer of peace and friendship from India.

It is difficult to imagine that there is no ambitious general in the army who would like to take over as Chief. Musharraf's main benefactor - the US - must be getting impatient that he is not doing enough to fight terror. Moreover, Musharraf has been proclaiming, for months, that he is the supreme leader of Pakistan. His constant emphasis on this suggests that something is nagging him though it is hard to pin-point. In addition, one cannot deal with Pakistan on a purely bilateral basis any more as it is necessary to take into account both the U.S and China. As Pakistan does not approve of the recent US- India strategic alignment it is moving closer to China. Pakistan is also upset at suggestions that India and Pakistan could jointly combat the Taliban in Afghanistan. To Pakistan, this suggests Indian military involvement in Afghanistan.

Therefore, what should India do? Firstly, India shouldn't be the one laying down Confidence Building Measures as India is the aggrieved party. Pakistan must first provide evidence that it is dismantling terrorist infrastructure. Secondly, we must not contemplate sending troops into Afghanistan as even though this is one way to keep Pakistan in check there are other better ways of doing the same.

D. Suba Chandran
Assistant Director, IPCS

There are four main problem areas that need to be discussed- PoK, Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP. The former two pose significant problems though they are manageable. The latter two are being managed at present though it is unclear whether Musharraf will succeed in administering the crises in the future. A word of caution in regard to Balochistan must also be mentioned. There is absolute media control in Balochistan. Even Baluchis are not allowed to enter certain parts of Balochistan. The exact situation is vague and we must proceed with caution in this regard.

Firstly, with regard to PoK, the elections for the ninth National Assembly are to be held on 11 July 2006. The last three Assemblies - elected in 2001, 1996 and 1991 - succeeded in completing their five year terms. The fourth Assembly, elected in 1990, was dismissed in 1991 and the third Assembly, elected in 1985, completed its five year term. By South Asian standards, five Assemblies in the last twenty one years is a commendable record. For the upcoming elections there is a 48 Member Assembly where 28 are to be elected from the districts of Azad Kashmir,12 from refugees from Jammu and Kashmir, and 8 reserved seats of the AJK Legislature are to be filled by an electoral college comprising 41 elected members of the assembly. The AJK Council comprises 14 members - 6 elected by the AJK Assembly, 5 nominated by the AJK Assembly and 3 ex officios. The Chief - Executive of Pakistan is its Chairman and the President of Azad Jammu and Kashmir is the Vice Chairman.

Can these elections be free and fair? Firstly, candidates for the 12 reserved seats are selected by the political party in Pakistan and thus the elections can never be free and fair. Further, the post election alignment will be decided upon by the parliamentary parties contesting the elections which casts doubt, once again, on the fairness of the elections. During the 2001 elections, Sardar Qayyum led the MC against the PPP and the latter was overthrown. The MC won 30 seats and the PPP only 17 though it was not the MC that chose the PM. Despite a majority that wanted to elect Qayyum as the PM the military imposed Sardar Sikandar Hayat Khan. When the party wanted to elect Qayyum as the President, the military once again made Maj. Gen. Sardar Mohammad Anwar Khan the Muslim Conference's Presidential candidate. When Qayyum refused, the party wanted his son, Attiq Khan, to be the party's nominee. Chaudhries have openly conveyed their support to the MC. This means that the 12 crucial refugee seats will be given on a platter to MC. In 1990, Nawaz Sharif gave the 12 seats as gift to Qayyum and the PPP gave the same gift to Sultan Mahmood in 1996. These 12 seats could also be used to bring a no-confidence motion against the government in AJK .International Observers however, except from India, are to be welcome.

Who are the main political parties contesting the elections? There is the Muslim conference although it is unclear whether they will be able to secure enough seats. Last time they managed to get 30 seats. There MQM and the JKPML are also contesting the elections for the first time. In addition there is the PPP, the MMA, and the JKLF.

Secondly, with regard to Sindh, Musharraf wants the coalition maintained till the next elections, and the urge to perform better in Sindh is driving the MQM. At present, there exists a power sharing arrangement in the coalition between the PML and the MQM where the CM is from the former and the Governor from the latter. Urban Sindh, especially Karachi, is administered by the MQM. Ali Mohammad Mahar was made the CM first and was then replaced by Arbab Ghulam Rahim in June 2003. Arbab Rahim was chosen by the intelligence and has an understanding with the Chaudhrys. While the regime and intelligence agencies want a stable Sindh until the next election the PML-Q seeks greater power. Thus, the struggle between the MQM and the PML-Q ensues, as with the latest crisis in June 2006.There is also the struggle between the MQM & the MMA in Karachi where, for example, the MMA blames the MQM for the recent attack on the Sunni Tehreek. Although this conflict could disturb Musharraf's dealings with the two parties, the situation is manageable.

Thirdly, in Balochistan, the two parliamentary committees have become defunct and many leaders have disappeared or been arrested. The major leaders are absconding and not talking to the government thereby leaving the political process in a shamble. Further, there is also the question of the strength of the BLA where their strength could determine the magnitude of the ensuing crisis. It is still primarily led by Marri tribesmen and, by and large, does not represent the Baluchi middle class. There are many theories regarding the origin of the BLA's support base. Some say it is from Afghanistan or the US and others that it is from Russia. There has been no direct combat so far consequently suggesting that the BLA is not as strong as perceived by the international media. However, it is still a serious crisis and the prevailing military strategy gives the impression that Musharraf is pursuing an all out war in Balochistan. There are also a number of inter-tribe disputes like the Marri vs. Bugti feud, as well as ones between the Bugti and Kalpar and Masuris. Further, there exists a prevailing political vacuum in Balochistan, and subsequently, a growing support base for the Taliban.

Lastly, in the NWFP, there are two sets of ensuing conflicts. Firstly, there is the conflict between the state and the military and secondly, one between the Taliban leaders and the local administration and tribal elders. Over 150 tribal elders have been killed by Taliban militants for being pro-government. In Khyber agency as well, another conflict is gathering momentum as Mufti Muni, Pir Saifullah, Mangal Bagh and the Lashkar-e-Islam are all trying to run their own administration. The conflict is also beginning to spread to settled districts of Bannu, Kohat and DI Khan with attacks on music and internet cafes, as well as dancing ceremonies at weddings.

However, there are a few positive aspects such as the appointment of Lt Gen Ali Mohammad Orakzai as Governor. He led the successful expedition to Tirah, in December 2001, in the Khyber Agency. In addition, the militants in NWFP have declared a ceasefire and laid down conditions for negotiation. These are positive steps.


Professor Vijay Lakshmi

In intellectual circles in Islamabad, Pakistan is referred to as a national security state, or even a failed state, and compulsive comparisons are made with India. There are four variables that come up frequently within these circles namely, Awam, Army, Allah and America where America has been an extraterritorial entity that has been detrimental to Pakistan. In terms of both development and security, this extraterritorial entity has had a major role to play. Further, the political system in Pakistan has been supported by state sponsorship so that the PM is not the people's representative. There is also recognizably weak political participation. There is no grass root level understanding of the direction in which the Pakistani state must head.

There is also the question of identity where some intellectuals maintain that Pakistani identity is South Asian and it cannot ignore its geo-strategic location. Keeping with such an understanding, a relationship that emphasises US primacy must be pursued. The second understanding of Pakistani identity is South West Asian, or simply West Asian. In this regard, it is important to keep the peace process going, even if with cynicism, as this is necessary for maintaining relations with the US. It has also been stressed that the American policy of de-hyphenation between India and Pakistan will fail and should be discontinued.

Questions and Comments:

1. How have the major political parties fared in Pakistan in the absence of their prominent leaders? Also, even though the corps commanders are supposed to be loyal and Musharraf considers himself to be indispensable, how long will this loyalty last?

2. There are 3 'A's important for Pakistan: Allah, America and Army. In terms of identity, it is neither South Asian nor West Asian but Islamic. The Islamic identity has taken control of everything in Pakistan. Even if the Kashmir issue is resolved, Indo-Pak hostility will not come to an end. The problem lies rather in a mindset and to resolve the issue is difficult. In fact, Islamism was rejuvenated in order to dominate and retain power. The problem with Pakistan goes back to the very beginning of Islam and thus, to better understand the issue, or resolve it even, we must change our terms of reference.

3. The army in Pakistan feels that the US is with them, and the army is also behind Musharraf. As for proxy war, the Pakistani army does not feel that the cost is any less for India and it is difficult to convince anyone in the international community that India is the aggrieved party. Further, even though the current situation presents a window of opportunity, it will be difficult for the opposition i.e. Bhutto or Sharrif to make a dent in the army.

4. Nothing seems to have changed since the days of Zia-ul-Haq and the general attitude is still anti-India and pro-Islam. However, Musharraf is cleverer than Zia as he has managed to build an alliance with the US without upsetting the fundamentalist Islamic parties. Under such circumstances, the political vacuum will be filled by fundamentalists. It will be tricky for Musharraf to maintain a balance between the US and the fundamentalists though this balance is a must as otherwise Pakistan will be faced with a difficult situation.

5. Neither the Navy nor Army is Islamic in the least. They are quite fed up of the continuing battle. It is like a genie in a bottle that they cannot seem to put back. They are also anti-Punjab and anti anything federal.

Concluding Remarks/Responses:

Vikram Sood

It is a sub continental phenomenon that political parties without charismatic leaders are unable to survive. Without the leader it is difficult for the party to function. Further, regarding the question of loyalty, it is probable that there is someone lurking around who is eyeing the post of Chief. Further, next year's elections are going to be 'General' elections, and the real test is going to be that of management. We should also face the reality that Pakistan is going to become more Islamic and the existing political vacuum will subsequently be filled by Islam. It is not so much, perhaps, in urban areas but in rural areas Islam is becoming ingrained in the people. This is going to endure.

Suba Chandran Durai

Aside from an Islamic identity, we must also take into account the new provincial identity that is developing. While an Islamic identity is being imposed a provincial identity is being realised. Further, if there are free and fair elections the MMA is going to be wiped out.

Kalim Bahadur

Firstly, the elections are not going to be free and fair as Musharraf cannot afford to lose them. Secondly, as per the constitution, Musharraf may only be sworn into office twice although, with these elections, it will be the third time. This will somehow have to be sorted out. Finally, in reference to Islam, the Quran has been written in a very rich language and is open to many interpretations. The fact that there are more than 70 sects, and that it is difficult to agree on the definition of a Muslim-even in the Muslim community, is a testament to the fact that there is no one supreme interpretation.