Inside Power Corridors

The News, June 18, 2006
Capital Suggestion
Dr Farrukh Saleem

The king has a standing offer for the queen: Come back, no cases against you or your husband, lead your party through a free and fair election. If your party wins, you can't be the prime minister, but any of your nominees could be. The king, ideally, shall remain the king although the king's foreign sponsors now want to dilute his monopoly on power; dilution not derailment.

The king at times uses the Swiss cases as bait but the queen isn't biting. In the meanwhile, the queen and Nawaz have signed a 'Charter of Democracy'. The more time she ends up spending with Nawaz the higher would be the damage to her public face of dumping Nawaz and cutting a separate deal with the king.

Nawaz's graph is sharply up. Unlike the Nawaz of yesteryears, the ex-premier is now taking bold, upright stances especially on the constitutionally prescribed role of the Pakistan Army. Ahsan Iqbal, in the meanwhile, is infusing a heavy load of rationality into a party that has often found itself lost in irrational mazes. Our king's pawns continue to claim that Nawaz isn't coming back because he can't break his promise with King Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud.

Imran Khan, after being on the chessboard a long time and many a wrong move, has now taken a principled stand: the Tehrik-e-Insaf has endorsed the 'Charter of Democracy'. Qazi Hussain Ahmed, MMA's president, has lauded the 'Charter of Democracy' deeming it as a "good omen" for democracy in the country. The ANP has a chessboard of its own. If the Bilours prove to be better movers then the ANP will climb the democracy bandwagon as well. The MQM is known to take principled stances but will wriggle out of the charter of democracy for the sake of more real power. The JUI-F is headed by an extremely shrewd politician -- shrewd and unpredictable -- inclined to retain power rather than taking on the establishment.

Qazi has more street power than votes. He would have to make all the right moves and not let his street power serve the queen's political interests. The queen is also under instructions from Condi Rice to take Nawaz along and not to stand on the same prayer mat as Qazi. Can Qazi bring Nepal to Islamabad? Would Qazi bring his pawns out on the streets at the risk of splitting up the MMA?

The queen has votes but no street power. Would the queen chicken out of the game of nerves and stay put in lands foreign? She is waiting for the windfall to arrive before she descends on to the Land of Pure; not yet prepared to become the wind herself. While the queen waits for the great American nod, Condi is busy twisting Musharraf's arms. Will the Americans change their horse in the midfield? I doubt it.

If the Queen and Nawaz come back the PML-Q stands to lose in a levelled electoral field. Tilting the electoral field (read: manipulating election results) -- when dal sells for Rs80 a kilo and sugar Rs40 a kilo -- can boomerang badly.

Also, consider the international chessboard: On May 2, the king's spokeswoman declared that the Khan case is closed. "As far as we are concerned this chapter is closed" proclaimed the Foreign Office. On May 25, Bush's men -- and a woman -- belonging to the House of Representatives' Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Non-proliferation roared back. Edward Royce, chairman of the subcommittee, declared: "The A.Q. Khan network has been described as the 'Wal-Mart of private sector proliferation'. Its handiwork has helped deliver to us two of the most threatening security challenges we face: North Korea and Iran."

The US also wants their major non-Nato ally to shed his uniform. They have no quarrel with the uniform -- they have always preferred uniformed politicians over civilians -- but they want him to share power and with the uniform on there cannot be any sharing of power.

There also is the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline episode. The US insists that revenues from the pipeline will go to build bombs. We say we'll build the pipeline. The current American policy, on the other hand, is to isolate Iran (to be sure, the pipeline's financial viability depends on India being on board). Then there is the $3 million gift for Hamas.

To be certain, America's closest ally in Pakistan has long been the Pak Army. Clearly, Bush wants to alter or amend Musharraf's conduct, and so the arm-twisting. To say that America wants democracy in Pakistan is hogwash but Musharraf is fast loosing support at the American think-tank level (which could be critical in times to come).

Next move: agitation or boycott?
The writer is an Islamabad-based freelance columnist. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com