Intelligence Failure or Intelligence Manipulation?

Daily Times, February 15, 2006
Intelligence failure led to security breakdown’
By Mohammed Rizwan

LAHORE: The Special Branch and intelligence agencies grossly underestimated the size of Tuesday’s protest rallies in Lahore which descended into riots.

According to a security plan presented by the superintendent of police (security) to the city police chief and the Punjab government, only 4,000-5,000 protestors were expected at the riots and only 700 police personnel were needed. However, some 50,000 people are estimated to have taken part in the bloody protests in which two people were killed and dozens injured, as well as countless damage done to property.

The security plan, made available to Daily Times, called for the deployment of 35 reserve battalions, about 700 personnel, along the route of the procession. Another 35 reserve battalions were deputed as the outer cordon on important points of the procession route.

Some 50,000 people gathered at Data Darbar at the start of the procession, on top of several small streams of protesters who were either on their way to join the main procession or later broke into small groups to vandalise properties.

When the procession reached the McDonald’s at Bank Square, declared sensitive in the security plan, only one reserve battalion (around 20 constables) from the city division headed by the additional station house officer of Gawalmandi police, as well as a couple of constables on the roof, were there to protect the restaurant from a mob 10,000-strong. Sensing that the police were badly outnumbered, the battalions chose not to challenge the rioters and quietly retreated, leaving the mob to vandalise shops at Regal Chowk.

“Whatever police force was there did little to challenge the mob because they were heavily outnumbered. Also the morale of the force took a nosedive when they witnessed an attack on their operational chief Amir Zulfiqar and City SP Omar Farooq Bhatti,” police sources told Daily Times. “Around 4pm reinforcements were called out from Civil Lines and another 1,500 personnel were sent but by then it was too little too late and there was no other option but to call out the Rangers,” said the sources.

At Faisal Chowk, where rioters attacked the Punjab Assembly building, the security plan asked for the deployment of seven reserve battalions and another battalion in the assembly chambers. The total 160 personnel deployed to protect the assembly under the command of the Mustafabad, Baghbanpura and Hadiara SHOs proved ineffective in the face of the onslaught.

At LDA Chowk, where bank security guards shot dead two rioters, only 20 police personnel were on hand to guard the LDA complex, McDonald’s and several banks.

“The whole saga was clearly a classic case of under-preparation by police which was given a false impression by the intelligence reports,” said sources. “Even the chief minister was shocked by the reports of the number of protesters and later the incidents of vandalism. His face dropped suddenly when he learnt the full picture in the afternoon.”