US-India Relations

Dawn, April 9, 2005
Rice's remark about India
By Kuldip Nayar


If India's wishes were to come true, it would have the best of equation with America. This is obvious from the mood prevailing in top government quarters in New Delhi. One sentence attributed to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - America wants to help India become a major world power in the 21st century - has sent hopes soaring.

The observation may sound patronizing, as one BJP leader has said, but not many have lent him ears. In fact, Rice's remark has practically erased the past bitterness against the US.

What will be the contours of the bilateral relationship is on the top of an unending discussion in the military, economic and political circles. Now the civil nuclear technology is taken for granted. But many more goodies are expected.

The importance attached to Washington's next move can well be imagined that New Delhi is paying it a lot of attention even in the midst of the long-awaited visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jaibao to India.

With Beijing it has been an on-going dialogue which New Delhi had begun more than two decades ago. It is now nearing the post; there is very little worry of any failure. What remains is the last lap which will cover the principles to settle the boundary dispute, expand economic ties and reach an arrangement whereby the two giants do not come into each other's way as they did in 1962.

But with America, the real relationship is yet to be built up. The cold war and Washington's distance even after that did not give New Delhi any hope for normality. President Clinton was inclined to initiate the process to draw India nearer, but then it exploded the bomb.

Relations became worse. After the remark by Rice, New Delhi is beginning to believe that America's attitude is changing and it has only to wait for Washington to open up its gates.

This may explain why the proposed supply of the F-16s to Pakistan has not created the furore that it would have done otherwise. The very mention of F-16 would make New Delhi furious in the past 15 years.

Washington had to pigeonhole the purchase although Islamabad had paid out in cash. Even a proposal of sale or transfer of US weapons to Islamabad irritated us. We still believe that such a move fuels arms race in the two countries. But America's offer to make India "a major world power" is too tempting to stoke old objections.

True, New Delhi's spokesman voiced India's protest against the sale of F-16s to Pakistan. But it was more to go on record than to upbraid Washington. Even the Left, the main prop of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, was not really angry. This might be because when it came to reaping the benefits all - Left, Right or Central - converged to become the same establishment.

Does this attitude indicate a change in India's perception that America tends to tilt towards Pakistan? Or, does it mean the beginning of a new type of understanding between New Delhi and Washington where there is a realization that the two largest democracies in the world are realizing that their interests are common? It is too early to find answers to these questions. But by the time President Bush visits India in January next, New Delhi or, for that matter, the world would have known the reply.

Experts have not forgotten that the induction of the US arms in the region has been invariably followed by hostilities between India and Pakistan. Nor has New Delhi ignored the fact that Islamabad is using the opportunity to obtain as many as 70 F-16s. Yet, what has made India as bland and mute as possible is the dream to become a "major world power" with Washington's help.

There is nothing wrong in it. But the ground realities do not give any indication that America means what Rice said. The US media paid little attention to her observation. Practically, no Congressman or Senator spoke in favour of what she said.

If anything, the remark by Rice was taken as part of rhetoric, not worthy of any specific attention. This will be the inference drawn in any part of the world because a policy statement by the US Secretary of State is followed by a categorical announcement by the White House, if not the State Department.

President Bush did convey to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on phone about the sale of F-16s to Pakistan. But Bush did not say anything on America's help to build India into "a major world power." It was only Rice's observation and that too when she was juxtaposing the supply of F-16s to Pakistan against what America was having in mind regarding India.

New Delhi is reportedly thinking of buying F-16s or the later version and also acquiring the technology to manufacture them. The step is not without risks. Russia, India's main supplier, may lift the ban on selling weapons to Pakistan. Moscow has persistently said 'no' to Islamabad's request for arms in the past.

The visit of the US officials from the Department of Energy does not suggest anything big. Even if this is the beginning, it is at a low level. America will have to go out of the way to release latest technology in different fields and offer a long-term generous credit.

What probably is true is that America is worried over India's growing relations with Iran on the one hand and China on the other. A long-term deal which New Delhi has signed with Tehran for gas, with the possibility of the pipeline through Pakistan, has irritated Washington.

Rice minced no worlds when she met government leaders in New Delhi. America does not like any country, much less India, to foster closer relations with Iran which may well be Washington's next target despite Europe's pressure on Tehran to give up its nuclear programme.

As far as China, India's equation with it may not be to the liking of America. Beijing still remains the most recalcitrant capital that Washington faces in the world. In America's scheme of things, the democratic India is supposed to counter the doctrinaire China.

If the two were to sink their differences, what answer does Washington have to Beijing's defiance? America has seen how China has passed Anti-Secession Act to occupy some day Taiwan which Washington swears to keep independent.

The report that China wants a free-trade area with India on the lines Beijing has contracted with Islamabad cannot be to the liking of Washington. If the markets of India and China are to be limited to the US, it is bound to suffer. Tomorrow's two economic giants are India and China. How can America sit back and watch the developments that are against its interests?

The writer is a leading columnist based in New Delhi.