Dawn, April 12, 2005
New US strategy in South Asia
By Mirza Aslam Beg
The decision to sell the F-16 to Pakistan and India, defines the US policy for South Asia and the region as a whole, and is linked with the "policy of forward engagement."
This, in essence, means retaining a military presence in the region as the pre-requisite for "pre-eminence in Eurasia - and America's global primacy, (which) is directly dependent on how long and how effectively its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained."
The US has a massive military presence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while Nato is seeking a greater role in Asia. Mr Hoop Scheffer, secretary-general of Nato, says, "Nato is doing its part in this global coalition against terror, against proliferation, against fragile and failed states. Nato is transforming fundamentally, militarily, politically, building new partnerships, new alliances.
It is important that, I touch base on behalf of Nato on what's happening in this region, which is geographically far away but, nevertheless, given the challenges, are very relevant to Nato." Meanwhile, a nuclear-capable Pakistan, having a meaningful conventional military capability, is expected to act as a balancing force from the Oxus in the north to the river Beas in the south.
The scenario is both enticing and ominous. Does it indicate "the logic of think tank strategist or a defence contractor", as the Indian journalist M.J. akbar questions, or is it based on flawed intelligence of the CIA? In either case, it entails security problems, which need be analysed a bit dispassionately.
Ukraine's orange revolution gave a new turn to events. Russia warned, "If India will not fully honour our interests, then there is no need to attach strings, conditions and demands from Russia not to trade (in arms) with Pakistan.
Currently, at the request of India, Moscow is not cooperating with Islamabad in the defence sector. Defence ties with India could come to a halt if India sought to mix its technologies with proposed purchases from the United States."
Within days, president Putin arrived in New Delhi and signed a long term deal for the purchase of high-tech weapons and equipment. India also agreed to build the pipeline from Iran.
The US was perturbed that its strategic partner India was going much too far and had to be restrained. The sale of the F-16s and F-18s to Pakistan and India respectively, therefore, was hurriedly approved, as quid pro quo for abandoning the pipeline project with Iran, as the first step.
How far India will oblige the United States is to be viewed from the angle of that the strategic partnership with the US as much too alluring to be dispensed with for the sake of Russia, which demands a different role and level of friendship: "The Russian Federation and the Republic of India are convinced that their bilateral cooperation in all forms, and their strategic partnership, contributes to the strengthening of the regional and global goodwill and cooperation."
Putin stated the immediate need for: "a strategic alliance between Russia, China and India a the foundation of a multi polar world - a world wide alliance that would curb the American superpower."
India, no doubt, is in an envious position, with coveting demands both from the east and the west, exerting a strategic pull. India's decision will be vital as it would either take us back into the cold war paradigm of confrontation and conflict or into a new era of peace and harmony, in South Asia in particular.
Pakistan is happy that its nuclear capability has been enhanced with the sale of the F-16s. Militarily and politically, it gives a boost to the present government. The military uniform and democracy are considered compatible, under a queer logic, which is expected to last until October 2007.
The third generation F-16s would partially cover the technological gap with India, but the search for the fourth generation high-tech, air superiority aircraft will continue.
In any case, the hybrid JF-17 Thunder, will soon replace the F-16. Politically, the message is loud and clear: "don't rock the boat." A divided MMA is agitating while the PPPP and the PML-N stand on the sidelines, waiting for better times, or a more clear signal.
Pakistan has to make a difficult choice, either to view the F-16 offer as a military need, or take recourse to a dynamic and pragmatic diplomacy, compatible with the demands of the emerging world order, which offers several options.
Uni polarity is giving way to multi polarity, as new centres of geo economic power are emerging, as expressed by Putin: "The transformation in the global environment in the recent past, stresses the need for a new international architecture based on a multi polar world."
The future, therefore, provides a much more level playing field for diplomacy to operate, because, for Pakistan, the United States is important as much as, Pakistan is important for the United States.
Pakistan's pivotal position, at the crossroads of Asia is most significant and its strategic importance will be judged, not only, by relating itself to Washington or Moscow, but its ability to harmonize with the shifting centre of gravity.
KISSINGER IDENTIFIES: "Tectonic international upheavals mark our period. The centre of gravity of world affairs is moving to the Pacific and almost all major actors on the international stage are defining new roles for themselves. That transformation is about concept as much as about power."
Pakistan has the choice to serve as the "American fortress, guarding the eastern wall of the Middle East region", as M.J. Akbar thinks, or enter into a new era - a new diplomatic paradigm of cooperation with its neighbour and the global contending centres of power: This strategic choice will correct the strategic error of the past and determine the future of Pakistan and the regional ethos.
The writer is a former Chief of Army Staff.
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