The mullahs are coming

The News, March 25, 2005
Reality Check
The mullahs are coming
Shafqat Mahmood

The writer is a freelance columnist and former member of Parliament based in Lahore

Some would say they are already here. They rule the Frontier and share half the government in Balochistan. Their leader Fazalur Rehman heads the opposition in the National Assembly and another leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, is making waves on the streets.

Their agenda permeates the establishment. Witness the turnaround on the religion column issue in the passport. While Gen. Musharraf never tires of playing up something called enlightened moderation, we have chosen to give in to the mullahs' demand. Billions already spent on software and in printing passport copies has gone down the tubes. Millions who have already got the new passport are in a quandary because they don't know whether it is valid or not.

The mullahs' political star is on the rise. They won the last bye-election in Malakand, which is supposed to be a PPP stronghold. All indications are that they will do exceedingly well in the local government elections in the Frontier and in parts of Balochistan. If the recent MMA rally in Karachi is any indication, they should do well there too.

As rallies go, this one was a winner. The Sindh chief minister has acknowledged a gathering of twenty thousand. Multiply this by at least three, if not more. If the mullahs are able to gather fifty-sixty thousand people in Karachi, they have done well. Meanwhile, the rally was a red rag to the bull, the dominant party in the city, the MQM.

The MMA tried to repeat the Karachi rally's success in Lahore on March 23. The results were not as good, but it did gather a sizeable crowd. What is more important, the MMA is the only opposition coalition risking a demonstration of street power. The ARD cancelled its public meeting on the same date because supposedly the ground was waterlogged. This may be partially true, but one suspects it also had difficulty gathering a decent crowd.

The mullahs have shown the ability to mobilise. They may not have the largest vote bank, but thanks to the madrassahs, street power is always available to them. This is a huge asset, given the history of Pakistani politics. We have often been ruled by un-elected authoritarian governments backed by the might of the state. The only place to challenge them is on the streets. The MMA seems to be the only entity capable of doing this these days. Whether it is serious in challenging the current status quo is another question.

The MMA is playing clever politics. It keeps pitching itself as the principal opposition to Gen. Musharraf while it has as much interest as the general in keeping the current political arrangement intact. It has a greater share of power than ever before in our history and a central role in politics. With the departure of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, its leaders have greater prominence and visibility. Why should it want to change this?

It is for this reason that the MMA has no sympathy with the PPP-PML(N) demand for early elections. It would rather wait till 2007 and use the political space to further build its strength. It also has little desire to topple Gen. Musharraf, even if it could do that. Anything that changes the status quo would be an anathema to it.

Yet, the MMA's rhetoric is bold, and it keeps threatening to bring this house of cards down. It is a clever game plan: run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Maulana Fazlur Rehman are astute politicians. They would milk every situation of as much political advantage as they could, but without disturbing the status quo.

These million-man marches serve many purposes. They mobilise the MMA rank and file and keep them happy and charged. They give the impression to the public that this coalition is the only serious opposition. And the government gets intimidated enough to allow the mullahs to extract personal or policy concessions.

Our partnership with United States in the 'war against terror' is playing beautifully into their hands. With every atrocity in Iraq or Western pressure on Muslims in other parts of the world, the MMA star rises. It may tacitly collaborate with the government, or at least have some commonality of interest with it. Yet, its anti-American and anti-Musharraf rhetoric gives the impression that it is the only pro-Muslim and genuinely nationalistic political opposition in the country.

Let us face it; the Mullahs are the only ones who have a political issue that resonates with the people today. They articulate the anger of the ordinary Pakistanis against American aggression in Iraq or our disgust at the treatment of Palestinians by the Israelis. Both the mainstream parties, the PPP and PML(N), are careful not to antagonise the Americans. The MMA has no such compunctions. In fact, it relishes the opportunity to sock it to them, knowing full well that this enhances its political stature.

Every era has its core political issue and the party that captures it goes on to fame and fortune. The Sixties in Pakistan saw a sharpening of class distinction and a feeling that the few were getting rich at the expense of the many. Along came Bhutto and the PPP, talking of food, clothing and shelter for the poor and generally abusing the rich. It created a storm of political awakening and carried Bhutto to power.

Unlike the Sixties, when there was a political vacuum in the country, the situation now is different, because a great deal of political space is occupied by the PPP and the PML(N). Yet, these mainstream parties do not have an issue that turns the people on. They can abuse Gen. Musharraf, but that alone is not good enough. There has to be something that catches the imagination of the people.

The MMA articulates the frustration felt by ordinary Pakistanis, and not all of this may translate into votes, but there is little doubt that the mullahs have arrived. They are serious political players and may well be the principal contenders for power in the next election.

Gen. Musharraf and the military have done their bit in smoothening the terrain for the mullahs. Their anti-PPP and -PML(N) campaign has helped the mullahs enormously. Just one particular fact would demonstrate the government's bias. If the graduation clause had been strictly enforced, very few mullahs would have made it to the assemblies. This concession was specially given to bring them in.

Maybe the desire was to create a bogey to scare the Americans, but it has succeeded beyond anyone's imagination. The mullahs are now a genuine political force, and they mean business. If the general truly wants moderate and enlightened parties to come up in Pakistan, he should seriously consider allowing Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif back. Otherwise the mullahs have an open field to score as many goals as they want to. And they will.

Email: smahmood@lhr.comsats.net.pk