Tuesday, January 31, 2012

A Review of Nine New Books on Afghanistan

Afghanistan: The Best Way to Peace
Anatol Lieven, New York Review of Books, February 9, 2012

The United States and its allies today find themselves in a position in Afghanistan similar to that of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, after Mikhail Gorbachev decided on military withdrawal by a fixed deadline. They are in a race against the clock to build up a regime and army that will survive their withdrawal, while either seeking a peace agreement with the leaders of the insurgent forces or splitting off their more moderate, pragmatic, and mercenary elements and making an agreement with them. The Soviets succeeded at least partially in some of these objectives, while failing utterly to achieve a peace settlement.

To date, that is just about true of the West as well; and while international support for the US position is much stronger than it was for the Soviets, our Afghan allies are much weaker and more fissiparous than theirs. Our Taliban enemies have been much more worn down militarily than the Afghan Mujahideen were by the Soviets during the late 1980s. But the Taliban and their allies draw on the same deep traditions of Islamist resistance to foreign “occupation” among the Pashtuns of Afghanistan and Pakistan as did some of the Mujahideen groups that fought against the Soviet occupation. (While Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, making up perhaps 40 percent of the population, they also make up about 15 percent of the Pakistani population and are concentrated along the Afghan border.) The Taliban have, moreover, comparatively safe bases in Pakistan to which they can withdraw. They will remain a very serious force.

Several recent studies and memoirs deal wholly or in part with the Soviet period in Afghanistan and draw lessons for our own campaign. Afgantsy, by the former British ambassador to Moscow Sir Rodric Braithwaite, is by far the best account in English of the Soviet experience there, and brings out very well how, in their fight against the Afghan Mujahideen, the Soviets wrestled with many of the same intractable Afghan realities that have bedeviled our efforts. A Long Goodbye, by Russian historian Artemy Kalinovsky, is an excellent account of the Gorbachev administration’s handling of the actual withdrawal process and the futile Soviet search for a peace settlement.

For complete article, click here

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Well Done Todd Shea


'We show up with medicines, not guns'
Hani Taha, Express Tribune, Jan 29, 2012

LAHORE:
Musician Todd Shea has developed a reputation for being the ‘go-to guy for relief’, an accolade that has come with his unique dedication for helping out with disasters around the world from places like Sri Lanka and India to Japan and Pakistan. His life and work make for a great narrative as he traipses all over Pakistan with medicines and music to bring not only physical relief, but emotional and psychological too. The Express Tribune caught up with Pakistan’s knight in musical armour to discuss his vision and work for the future.

What was the vision for the Sonic Peacemakers at the project’s outset?
It was to make music with Pakistani musicians and highlight my relief work in the country and use music to open up people’s hearts so that they could see the truth about Pakistan. The American media never talks about their responsibility towards the people here. Our foreign policy has gone from dumb, dumber to dumbest since the starting of the Afghan war. This music shows what the government and the media aren’t showing.

How did your interest towards Pakistan develop?
I had been working in disaster relief in places like Sri Lanka and at home with 9/11 and the hurricanes as a logistics volunteer. And so when I heard about the earthquake in Pakistan in 2005, I just hugged my son, said goodbye and hopped onto a plane. Initially, I was planning on staying for just 15 days but ended up extending my trip to two months. I realised that I could better use my life and music this way than pursue my selfish career. I now spend an average of seven to eight months every year in Pakistan.

How do you gauge the influence of your work?
Well, so far, we’ve helped 600,000 people through my NGO Comprehensive Disaster Response Services. My music project with the Sonic Peacemakers is just getting off the ground, so the measure for how effective my work has been is through what the NGO achieves. All my employees are Pakistanis; we come to people with the message of peace and love, and we live within the communities where we serve. We don’t show up with expensive vehicles and guns but just love and medicines.

How have people, including musicians and the media in the US, reacted to this project?
My pal musician Lanny (Cordola) and I went to Guns and Roses and asked them to do a project with us in Pakistan and although they were initially apprehensive, once they came down they saw for themselves how amazing Pakistan was. The New York Times ran a story on me titled ‘Improbable American’, based on my relief work in Chikar in Kashmir. That resulted in new avenues of support from ‘goras’ but apart from that, the US media largely ignores me and this side of Pakistan.

What’s your opinion on the Pakistani artists?
Pakistan has amazing musicians and great diversity within its musical community. The musicians and artists that I hope to work with are those who wish to utilise their artistry and their time, helping the less privileged ones. I have deep respect for Arieb Azhar, Abrarul Haq, Shehzad Roy, Quratulain Balouch, Jawad Ahmed, Salman Ahmad and Farhan Saeed.

Any collaboration in the pipeline with local music acts?
We are currently working on two projects, ‘The Sounds of Pakistan and Beyond’ and ‘The Dreamer Awakes’ that will include songs from various artists. Musicians including Strings, Ali Zafar, Qayaas, Sanam Marvi, Saeen Zahoor , Mekaal Hasan, Zoe Viccaji, Call, Noori, Laal, Sketches, Haroon, Usman Riaz, Overload, Overdrive, Abbas Premji, Reza Abbasi, Adil Omar, EP and many folk and classical musicians are among the performers who will be collaborating with The Sonic Peacemakers on recordings, concerts and fundraisers in Pakistan and abroad. We also have a partnership with the Children’s Academy for the Performing Arts to give guitars to kids and we are always willing to work with like-minded individuals and organisations.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 29th, 2012.

Friday, January 27, 2012

"Dealing with Pakistan's fears on water" - An Indian Perspective

Dealing with Pakistan's fears on water
Ramaswamy R. Iyer , The Hindu, Jan 28, 2011

The best reassurance that Pakistan can have is full Indian compliance with the provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty.
This article is not about the complex political or strategic reasons that the water establishment in the government and/or the army in Pakistan may have for projecting water as a new core issue between that country and India, nor is it about the jihadists' adoption of water as a cause, their threats of bloodshed over the alleged denial of water by India, and the influence that these may have on the general public. It is about the concerns expressed by saner voices in Pakistan. Some of these may be based on misperceptions or misinformation, but they need to be taken note of. The major water-related concerns of thoughtful people in Pakistan are briefly elucidated below.

Lower riparian anxiety

The general lower-riparian anxiety vis-à-vis the upper riparian is accentuated in this case by the antagonistic political relationship between Pakistan and India. In the context of such a relationship, it is easy for the people to be persuaded that the upper riparian has malign intentions and might either stop the flows or store and release the waters in a flood to the detriment of the lower riparian. There is no need to discuss these fears further, as they were fully taken note of and covered by special provisions in the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (IWT) to safeguard Pakistan against these dangers. If a ‘visceral lower riparian anxiety' tends to persist despite the IWT, there can be no institutional answer to it. The only circumstance which will ensure a total absence of anxiety on Pakistan's part would be a total absence of Indian structures on the western rivers, but that is not what the IWT says. It permits Indian projects on the western rivers, but stipulates restrictions and conditions that safeguard Pakistan's interests. The best reassurance that Pakistan can have is full Indian compliance with those Treaty provisions, and this is zealously watched by the Indus Commissioner for Pakistan in the Permanent Indus Commission.

Water scarcity and reduced flows

There is, in Pakistan as in India, a growing perception of water scarcity and of a crisis looming on the horizon. Given the mutual hostility between the two countries, it is not surprising that there is a tendency in Pakistan to believe that the scarcity it is experiencing or fearing is partly attributable to upper riparian actions. While popular perceptions in this regard may not be based on proper information and understanding, they seem to receive unwitting corroboration in reported findings by Pakistani scholars of a trend of reduction in the flows in the western rivers. A ready inference would be that there must be diversions in the upstream country. Denials by the upper riparian are apt to be received with scepticism. The only answer to this is to institute a joint study by experts of both countries to determine whether in fact there is a trend of reduced flows in the western rivers and, if so, to identify the factors responsible.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Water shortages threaten renewed conflict between Pakistan, India - Alertnet
Indo-Pak water issues: room for cooperation? By Tridivesh Singh Maini  - Daily Times
Ebb and Flow: Indian-Pakistani Water Relations Dry Up - Jane Review

FOR PAKISTANI PERSPECTIVE, see
Indo-Pak water tension by M Y Qaisrani (Dec 2010)

Additional Readings - with Thanks to Jakob Steiner
Searching for conflict in water - Dawn
Water War Mongering or Untapped Potentials? - Rug Pundits

Friday, January 20, 2012

Civil - Military Tension in Pakistan and Memogate

Pakistan's "Memogate"
By Tim Lister, CNN.com, Jan 19, 2012

Pakistan once more finds itself enveloped in overlapping crises. Daggers are drawn between the civilian government and the military brass; the Supreme Court is reviving corruption allegations against President Asif Ali Zardari; the Taliban and other militant groups continue to carry out suicide bombings and assassinations at will; and the economy is in dire straits.

Added to which relations between Pakistan and its most important partner, the United States, are at their lowest ebb in years, according to long-time observers of the relationship. This week, Ambassador Marc Grossman, the State Department’s lead diplomat on Afghanistan and Pakistan, is visiting several countries in the region – but not Islamabad, at the Pakistanis’ request.

"His visit could fuel anti-American sentiments and create trouble for the government which is already surrounded by storms", a Pakistani official told CNN.

One of those storms is dubbed "memogate" and is being probed by a commission set up by the Supreme Court. At the center of the furor is Pakistani-American financier Mansoor Ijaz. He says that in the aftermath of the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan last May, Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington, Husain Haqqani, telephoned him with an urgent request. Haqqani asked him to contact the White House – to prevent a possible coup in Pakistan.

Ijaz says a memo "was crafted" and passed to the then Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, on May 10th. The intermediary was former U.S. National Security Adviser General James Jones. The memo was unsigned but Ijaz insisted it was authorized by "the highest authority" in Pakistan.
Its most explosive passage promised that "a new national security team will eliminate Section S of the ISI [military intelligence] charged with maintaining relations to the Taliban, Haqqani network etc. This will dramatically improve relations with Afghanistan." The United States has long contended that the ISI supports militant jihadist groups, but such a move would have been a direct challenge to the military’s authority.

.....................

Few observers expect a military coup. Hassan Abbas, a senior adviser at the Asia Society, told CNN: "Prospects of a military coup in near future are very low the as army leadership is well aware that the newly empowered judiciary, increasingly influential media and – most importantly- a great majority of political parties with significant public support will openly and strongly resist such a move."
Abbas also believes that the Movement for Justice led by Imran Khan, Pakistan's former cricket captain, could benefit from the current imbroglio.

"No party is likely to win clear majority," Abbas says. "However, another six months of planning and strategizing will enhance the prospects of Imran Khan's Justice Parry. His movement is gaining momentum among the young people and that can be a critical factor in next elections."

In the meantime, the word "paralysis" is on the lips of many Pakistan-watchers, as a three-cornered battle between the judiciary, civilian government and military ebbs and flows. So preoccupied are all parties with this domestic struggle that prospects for Washington to begin repairing its relationship with Pakistan seem dim.

In the wake of the U.S. air-strike that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers along the Pakistan-Afghan border on November 26th, a parliamentary committee in Islamabad is examining ties with the U.S. The government has already rejected a NATO report that blamed misunderstandings on both sides for the deadly incident, amid growing anti-American sentiment in Pakistan.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Pakistan on Edge, Again - Newsweek, Pakistan
Pakistan PM Gilani stands firm in contempt battle - BBC

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Iran and the Nuclear Crisis

Preventing a Nuclear Iran, Peacefully
By Shibley Telhami and Steven Kull
New York Times, Jan 16, 2012

THE debate over how to handle Iran’s nuclear program is notable for its gloom and doom. Many people assume that Israel must choose between letting Iran develop nuclear weapons or attacking before it gets the bomb. But this is a false choice. There is a third option: working toward a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East. And it is more feasible than most assume.

Attacking Iran might set its nuclear program back a few years, but it will most likely encourage Iran to aggressively seek — and probably develop — nuclear weapons. Slowing Iran down has some value, but the costs are high and the risks even greater. Iran would almost certainly retaliate, leading to all-out war at a time when Israel is still at odds with various Arab countries, and its relations with Turkey are tense.

Many hawks who argue for war believe that Iran poses an “existential threat” to Israel. They assume Iran is insensitive to the logic of nuclear deterrence and would be prepared to use nuclear weapons without fear of the consequences (which could include killing millions of Palestinians and the loss of millions of Iranian civilians from an inevitable Israeli retaliation). And even if Israel strikes, Iran is still likely to acquire nuclear weapons eventually and would then be even more inclined to use them.
Despite all the talk of an “existential threat,” less than half of Israelis support a strike on Iran.

According to our November poll, carried out in cooperation with the Dahaf Institute in Israel, only 43 percent of Israeli Jews support a military strike on Iran — even though 90 percent of them think that Iran will eventually acquire nuclear weapons.

Most important, when asked whether it would be better for both Israel and Iran to have the bomb, or for neither to have it, 65 percent of Israeli Jews said neither. And a remarkable 64 percent favored the idea of a nuclear-free zone, even when it was explained that this would mean Israel giving up its nuclear weapons.

The Israeli public also seems willing to move away from a secretive nuclear policy toward greater openness about Israel’s nuclear facilities. Sixty percent of respondents favored “a system of full international inspections” of all nuclear facilities, including Israel’s and Iran’s, as a step toward regional disarmament.

If Israel’s nuclear program were to become part of the equation, it would be a game-changer. Iran has until now effectively accused the West of employing a double standard because it does not demand Israeli disarmament, earning it many fans across the Arab world.

And a nuclear-free zone may be hard for Iran to refuse. Iranian diplomats have said they would be open to an intrusive role for the United Nations if it accepted Iran’s right to enrich uranium for energy production — not to the higher levels necessary for weapons. And a 2007 poll by the Program on International Policy Attitudes found that the Iranian people would favor such a deal.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Iran's Bomb and Pakistan By Pervez Hoodbhoy - Express Tribune
Iran warns of consequences if Arabs back oil sanctions - Reuters

Sunday, January 15, 2012

The Unending Crisis in Baluchistan

Is Pakistan Heading for Disaster in Baluchistan?
Pakistan must end its policy of killings and kidnappings of Baloch people and recognise the importance of the region
Akbar Ahmed, Aljazeera.com

Washington, DC - The behaviour of the powerful elite of Islamabad reminds me of the captain and crew of the RMS Titanic sailing into the night, heading straight towards an iceberg. The civilian, military and judicial authorities are locked up in a tussle coloured by political positions and personal egos. And there is a dangerous disconnect between Islamabad and the enormous problems that loom on the Pakistani horizon.

Law and order appears to have collapsed in many parts of the country. In the north-east, the former Frontier Province, there are daily killings as suicide bombers and the army continuously fight each other. Unemployment is widespread and inflation is sky-high. And there is still a desperate shortage of electricity and gas in much of the country.

But perhaps none of these problems is more pressing than the situation in Balochistan. If the simmering, but widespread movement for independence spins out of control, Pakistan will find it almost impossible to maintain nationhood.

I was reminded of Balochistan by the recent visit of Malik Siraj Akbar to my office. It made me happy to think back to my associations with its people and places, but I also became distressed as I thought of the current situation: a climate of killings and so-called "disappearances".

In his late twenties, Malik comes from Makran and was born in its northern town, Panjgur. His sharp intelligence, awareness of the world and passionate arguments for his people reminded me of all the people I met in Makran as Commissioner when I was posted there in the mid-1980s.

On arrival, what struck me was the resilience and faith of the Baloch, in spite of the widespread poverty and lack of economic development. Even after decades of the country's existence, Pakistan - it seemed - had done very little for the Baloch. There were only five miles of paved road in Makran - from the Commissioner's house, in Turbat, to the tiny airport. Flights were irregular and the telephone lines to the rest of the country were frequently out of order.
A land of honour

But I found it a fascinating experience: the people were welcoming and the area was redolent of history. Makran was, after all, where Alexander the Great got lost on his way to Persia after his battles in India. Over time, I had the privilege of meeting and getting to know legendary Baloch leaders such as Nawab Akbar Bugti, Mir Ghaus Bukh Bizenjo, Jam Ghulam Qadir and Mir Jafar Khan Jamali. From them, I learned that there was a time when a woman wearing gold ornaments could travel from the north of Balochistan to the south and not be molested.
"There was honour," they said, "in the land."

For complete article, click here

Related:
For regular updates & analysis on Baluchistan, see The Baloch Hal, edited by Malik Siraj Akbar
The Balochistan conundrum - Dawn Editorial
Reconciling with Balochistan -  Ishrat Saleem, Daily Times
India and the Baloch insurgency - Hamid Mir, The Hindu (2009)
 

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

English Vs. Urdu in Pakistan

Pakistan ruined by language myth

Effective teaching of English is the preserve of an elite leaving the rest of the country to linguistic confusion and educational failure


Zubeida Mustafa; guardian.co.uk,


Last year I wrote a book highlighting the crisis in Pakistan's education system caused by the way languages are used and taught. Its publication prompted one critic to remark that I was trying to "backwardise" the children of Pakistan. Another said that language was not the problem; it was what we taught that needed to be addressed.

These were typical responses from highly educated, fluent English speakers. They have glorified the English language in Pakistan to the extent that all logic has been put aside. But they wield great influence over public opinion and have even persuaded policymakers that the country's education system can be fixed by hiring teachers competent in English. Such teachers are hired by exclusive private schools, which are beyond the reach of the majority. So proficiency in English automatically becomes the preserve of the affluent.

Since I have been more concerned about the majority's problems, I have pleaded the case of the underprivileged by stating that children must initially begin their schooling in their own tongue, with which they are familiar. This will help their cognitive development and inculcate critical thinking. It will also enable them to be articulate participants in the construction of knowledge in the classroom and discourage the culture of rote learning. English should be introduced at a later stage and taught as a second language.

With the exception of a small minority of children who are bilingual even before they begin school, teaching children in a language other than their mother tongue in the early years does them harm, no matter how good their teachers may be. This approach robs the child of the natural advantage she has in her home language.
A child begins "acquiring" language from her environment soon after she is born. Children have already gained three or four years of language experience in their mother tongue when they start school. If English is to be the school language, these children lose this advantage. The benefit goes to a small minority that is bilingual from the start by virtue of their parents being the products of exclusive English-medium education.

For complete article, click here

Related:
Language-Teaching and Power in Pakistan - Tariq Rahman
Pashto Language and Identity Formation in Pakistan - Tariq Rahman
http://www.theurdulanguage.com/

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Negotiations with Taliban - Myth and Reality

The Taliban come to roost in Qatar
By M K Bhadrakumar, Rediff Blog, January 3, 2011

The Taliban have reportedly agreed to open a representative office in Qatar. What is unclear is who are these ‘Taliban’. There is deafening silence in Pakistan, which should have been bestir with excitement that a defining moment has been reached in the Afghan endgame. The silence needs to be interpreted.

But given the tenor of the media briefings by the spokesman of the Pakistani military in the last few days, it doesn’t seem that Pakistan is part of this Qatar show, although ISI chief Shuja Pasha did pay a quiet visit to Doha last week.

Nor is it likely that the Iranians are in the loop. The Iranian army chief Gen. Ataollah Salehi has just warned the US Fifth fleet not to its depute aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf again. “We advise and insist that this warship not return to its former base in the Persian Gulf.” (USS John C. Stennis, one of America’s biggest warships, is apparently cruising in the Sea of Oman at the moment.)
However, the big question is whether Mullah Omar is part of this Qatar affair. From the latest reports, he seems to be rallying the various Taliban groups to form a united front to launch a renewed offensive against the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan. Not exactly the kind of thing he should be doing when he is reportedly sitting down to talk? Good question.
So, who are these ‘Taliban’ who are in parleys with the US? Conceivably, they include the folks coming under the rubric of ‘moderate Taliban’ who have been living in Kabul under Hamid Karzai’s lock and key and enjoying state hospitality. In sum, they could be shifting residence from the ’safe houses’ in Kabul to the ’safe houses’ in Doha. Then, there are the interlocutors who pop up as Taliban ‘representatives’. No one is in any position to know who they are or what credentials they enjoy to speak on behalf of the Taliban.
Finally, the question arises whether there is a unified Taliban opposition as such that the Americans can engage. It seems Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s son-in-law is currently camping in Kabul to meet the NATO officials, possibly seeking accommodation in Qatar, while he himself is living in Peshawar.
The crunch time comes when the Taliban’s former commander-in-chief Mullah Mohammed Fazl arrives in Qatar on a long tiring flight with mid-air refuelling from Guantanamo Bay. Mullah Fazl’s ‘reintegration’ into the Afghan jihadi tapestry will need to be skillfully handled.
The guy has a lot of blood on his hands. While living and working in Tashkent, I heard terrible stories about his activities in Mazar-i-Sharif. Such as packs of wild dogs eating up the corpses of hundreds (or thousands) of Hazara Shi’ites including women and children executed there in that horrendous period of August-September 1998.
His metamorphosis as an Islamist politician in a democratic era will be something to watch. That is, if he doesn’t go berserk after having lived in a 2 metre x 1 metre underground cell in Guantanamo Bay for 9 years. How will he take to the sight of the sea? And all the good things in life that Qatar is famous for? This is by far going to be one of the epic stories of the entire Arab Spring.
What is crystal clear is that the Barack Obama administration is in tearing hurry to take peace parleys to some visible point by the time the NATO summit is held in Chicago in May. Or else, it will become increasingly difficult to persuade the Europeans to take any more interest in the war at such a time when their own house is on fire. Their debt repayment liabilities alone in 2012 apparently work out to some 500 billion euros and they can’t afford this war anymore.
Related:
'Secret' talks with Taliban reach decisive phase  - Express Tribune (Reference Pakistani Taliban)