The AQ Khan "factor"

Daily Times, May 28, 2006
EDITORIAL: The AQ Khan ‘factor’ again!

A US Congress subcommittee on international terrorism and non-proliferation has heard the testimony of an expert who said that the case of nuclear proliferation against Dr AQ Khan of Pakistan was “far from closed” and that the Pakistani nuclear scientist should be exposed to further inquiry by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) so that the real extent of his “help” in the development of Iran’s covert nuclear programme could be determined. Some people see this development as a pressure tactic against the Pakistan government to get it to cooperate some “more”.

Pakistan’s response — with an eye to its impact at home — will be predictable: it will not submit to any pressure from the Bush administration and it will not expose Dr AQ Khan to any external inquiry. That raises another question: will the “pressure tactic” be followed by an official demarche from Washington? We doubt that very much, given the trouble that the United States is having with Iran and its proliferation from within the NPT. The other factor is the status of Pakistan as a US ally. For the time being at least, the two states need each other, although problem areas are developing in the relationship.

President Pervez Musharraf has not defended the proliferation activities of Dr AQ Khan and his “network”. Indeed, he has explained carefully his non-participation in the nuclear smuggling activities of the scientist who was made to confess on TV that his activity was his own private project. President Musharraf has told an American interviewer that he sacked Dr AQ Khan after discovering that he was travelling to Iran without officially informing anyone. There is no effort at hiding what the scientist did, but strong arguments have been advanced to defend the decision not to “throw him to the wolves” of the IAEA. One is that he is a “national hero”, another that Pakistan cannot afford an airing of its nuclear programme if Dr Khan decides to “sing” — in excess of what might be required — to save his own skin.

There is no doubt that Dr Khan is a “national hero”. Unfortunately, in both India and Pakistan people who thought up and made the bomb have been inserted as icons in the new nationalist rhetoric. Dr Khan is supported by the combined opposition in parliament in Islamabad; and the parties, which may think differently about him individually, have come together to denounce the Musharraf “set-up” as the persecutors of a “mohsin” (benefactor) of the nation. If the United States chooses to make the “pressure tactic” of the Congress sub-committee official, and President Musharraf is seen to defy it, he might yet improve his popularity with the common man. Ironically, however, by lamenting loudly the “maltreatment” of the Great Scientist, the opposition is indirectly endorsing the role of the army in the country’s civilian affairs. No one believes that Dr Khan could have done what he did without the generals being in the loop. And it is almost certain that the elected civilian prime ministers did know something of what was happening.

Pakistan’s nuclear programme was a covert project. It went on because the United States and its allies needed Pakistan to fight their Cold War against the Soviet Union. Their moral position was also greatly undermined by the fact that Israel and India were allowed to refuse to sign the NPT and develop their nuclear weapons capability. In fact, the Bush administration seemed to adopt a more realistic policy towards the nuclear “mavericks”, almost legitimising the “three outside the NPT” as nuclear powers. But Pakistan’s case became complicated by reason of Dr Khan’s shenanigans. Under the circumstances, Pakistan has done everything it could to come clean on the charge of sneaking proliferation. It is not in denial and is willing to pass on more information provided Dr Khan is not asked to be “handed over”. That’s where the red line is drawn. It is not possible to do any more than that politically.

The Bush administration knows that. This means that the nuclear “pressure” tactic is meant to extract concessions from Pakistan on some other issue, possibly Afghanistan. *